I had Jay tagged as an unlikely winner, a couple of weeks ago. But in the last week or so he's become more miserable, and has started to swear a lot more - too much to give him a chance of winning, I think. It's all about the situation with Aaron, of course - more on that below. The main feature of the show is now Jay's group (Jay, Aden and Anton) versus Aaron's group (Aaron, Harry and Faye). Animosity is there, and it's all going to come to a head, sooner rather than later. The winner of that conflict could well win the show, but it's also possible that the two camps could end up destroying each other's chances, letting a neutral through to win.
Jay is still the biggest character in the house, but is guaranteed at least three nominations today, possibly more. And a key development today is that he's fallen out with Louise, his squeeze up to now - more on that below, too.
Aaron's been a real game player from the start, and is for me very reminiscent of scheming Nasty Nick. Aaron's trying to win the money for his son, and there's nothing wrong with that. It's the depth of his personality that makes him so interesting, and make no mistake, almost everything he does is calculated. When he's not sure about how to adapt his game to the latest situation, he withdraws somewhere quiet for a while, taking time to figure things out, before coming up with a measured response for people.
I don't think he liked brash Jay from the beginning, but decided to tolerate him, in the interests of staying out of trouble. What pushed him over the edge with Jay was when Mark left - they were close, and Mark made it pretty clear that Jay was a big factor in him going home. Since that happened, the battle lines have been drawn, and Jay is now Aaron's target.
Just like Nasty Nick would have done, Aaron's been involved in some pretty serious gameplaying this week, regarding the situation. After a frosty spell, he's beginning to win Tom over to his side. And he seems to have gained Alex's sympathy a little as well. He's already tried once to turn Aden against Jay, and today, he cleverly engineered a private conversation with Louise, just after she and Jay agreed to cool it a bit.
I think Aaron's guaranteed at least four nominations today. It could be him against Jay for eviction this week. I certainly hope not - that battle should wait until much later, even until the final.
Jemma, new housemate and Faye's older sister. For me, she's a bit too upfront and manipulative to win. The producers put her in to mess up Aaron's little game with Faye. Jemma had seen it all on TV of course, before she went in, and has got Aaron worked out a bit. Aligning herself with Jay is a mistake, I think. Will get into arguments with Faye, Aaron and probably Jay before too long, and won't last too long in the house.
I've seen a bit of a different side to Aden this week. Behind the rap bravado, he's quite a sensitive and thoughtful guy, and seems to have recovered from losing nasty Rebeckah. Becoming Jay's henchman is a mistake, though, it'll bring out his aggressive streak, and he'll eventually be swamped out of the house.
Harry had already started to grow on me, and he's developed more as a character this week. He's interesting, and I couldn't believe it when he took Anton on in a big argument over being deceitful, and shouted him down. Could do well long-term, but his support of fox hunting rules him out as a winner, I think.
Alex, on the left, has been touted as a favourite to win. She's a nice enough girl, and keeps herself out of trouble, that's for sure. But she's no game player, and is too much of an airhead to win. She was actually serious when she said that visiting Willy Wonka's Chocolate Factory in America was a big ambition, and didn't believe Harry, when he told her that it didn't exist. She's also outgunned by the other girls, on both looks and personality.
There's a real nasty streak in ex-gang member Anton. He's done quite well to bottle it up a bit until now, but it will come out more and more over time, and is the reason he can't win. I couldn't believe it when he backed down to Harry.
Faye's going to stick with Aaron, I think, in spite of her sister's obvious caution about him. Aaron does like her, I'm sure, but he's letting her believe there's more to it than there actually is, as exploiting her affection is part of his game. Aaron might carry her to the final, her relationship with him was what kept her in over Maisy. But Faye's a bit too quiet to win, I think.
That's Louise, in the middle. There's a shrewd gameplayer behind the innocent facade. I think there has been definite evidence this week that she's sitting back and staying out of trouble, with the intention of emerging later, when the field has narrowed a bit. She latched on to Jay when he was the kingpin of fun, and I wonder if it's any coincidence that she has today backed off of him, now he's become duller, and more antagonistic. I wonder if she thinks Aaron will win the central battle of the series, and has opened her options up, in terms of switching sides for a while.
I think she'll come out of her shell towards the end, like Kate Lawler did. And she might just have the looks and personality to become the winning neutral, between the two warring groups.
After falling out with Aaron, I think Tom's come to realise that Aaron's group is probably the right side of the fence to be on. But underneath the geekiness, there's a spiteful, backstabbing streak, which will be his undoing before the final.
So who's going to win? I've changed my opinion since my last entry - that's what so engaging about Big Brother;
1. Louise (up 1).
2. Aaron (up 1).
3. Jay (down 2).
4. Harry (new entry).
5. Faye (new entry).
Of course, if Aaron and Jay are put up for eviction against one another this week, the whole dynamics of the house will change.
And for a surprising update on this developing story, please visit http://stevestonechat.blogspot.com/2011/10/british-big-brother-nominations-update.html
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