Who's Going To Win Big Brother? The Final Shout

Alex, on the left there, has upped her game just a little this week. Winning the boat-rowing task did her chances a favour.

And she's started to come to the Diary Room a bit more often, to tell Big Brother and the public how she's doing. But it all feels a little forced, like Mark's efforts to use the Diary Room as an entertainment platform.

Her positive attitude at all times might just allow her to emerge from the relationship-based arguments and faction-based backstabbing (see below for more on these things), and win. But for me, she hasn't contributed nearly enough, and if I wanted to watch four-year old games, I would have watched PlaySchool, not Big Brother.

A clever move on Tom's part, instigating the still-developing relationship with Alex. He'd be long gone, but for that, and he thinks Alex will carry him to the final. But underneath his contribution to the new fun partnership, he's bitchy, backstabbing and spiteful. The pairing with Alex may well result in him finishing sixth, keeping him in over Harry.

Have you noticed that Jay has almost completely stopped swearing, since last being put up for eviction?  He's the biggest character left, and the most genuine of the remaining housemates. Underneath all the muscle and bravado, there's a nice and caring guy. He's even begun to get chummy with his old enemy, Aaron. Jay's feelings for Louise are real, although I doubt they're fully reciprocated.

Not fully participating in a couple of tasks did him no favours. He could still win with a big effort towards the end, but it'll take a lot to make people forget that he was a part of Anton's lies about Aaron, after the crypt task.

Louise, Jay's girl, at the centre of the picture. She appears to have developed some genuine feelings for Jay, but I think they're largely false, and are designed to get her to the final. I'm sure she fancies him, but knows he's not for her, when they get out of the house. That's why she dropped him like a stone, when she thought he would be up for eviction against Aaron. She took Jay back the very next day, when she realised he wasn't going anywhere, because Anton and Aden were up for eviction as well.

Louise lacks substance, and will ultimately end up as a footballer's wife.

Harry's continued to grow on me, despite becoming more stuck-up, of late. But the three relationships (Jay and Louise, Aaron and Faye, Tom and Alex) are the defining feature of the show now, and he's outside of that picture. I don't think a fox hunter can win, and he'll finish behind Tom, if put up for eviction next week.

Jemma was against Aaron's relationship with her sister Faye, before she came into the house as a late newcomer. Most of it is an older sister's natural reaction, to Faye becoming involved with an older man.

But Jemma played her cards close to her chest for a while, pretending to give Aaron the benefit of the doubt. Anton's lies about Aaron's attitude towards Faye pushed Jemma over the edge, prompting Jemma to confront Aaron, sooner than she otherwise might have done. Anton knew that would be the case, of course, and the lies were his parting shot to Aaron, one of the last actions of the dying Wolf Pack faction. And unfortunately, Aaron was never going to forgive Jemma, once she had accused him of being false with Faye.

I think Jemma is very competitive, but is confrontational with it, in a spiteful and bitchy way. I don't like the way she celebrates Aaron's misfortunes. That's not sporting, and it's not Big Brother. And if anyone is trying to mess with Faye's head, it's Jemma, not Aaron.

Jemma is up for eviction against Aaron this week, and I very much hope she goes. But unfortunately, there's just a chance that Jemma's prior appearances on Gladiators might generate enough votes to keep her in, even though Aaron has a big fan base. She doesn't care about Big Brother anymore, she knows she can't win. She wants to go home, because she knows that she can't stop arguing with Faye, like sisters often do. If Jemma does stay in on Friday, she'll walk off the series, mission against Aaron accomplished.

I only heard this week that Faye is just 19 years old. She comes across older than that, except for her teenage paranoia, and propensity to argue over very little. Mind you, Faye has plenty to be paranoid about, she has seen that her sister and mother don't believe Aaron is good for her. Their view is a natural reaction to a 19-year-old family member falling for a 30-year-old guy, and I'm sure that the families of the other contestants had that in mind, when they nominated Aaron to face eviction against Jemma (see my previous post http://stevestonechat.blogspot.com/2011/10/british-big-brother-families-and.html).

Faye could still win, she has substance. But it'll take a big effort towards the end, given all the arguments she's had with Jemma and Aaron.

Dear old Aaron, he's been through a lot, hasn't he? Most things have revolved around him from the start. He flirted with Maisy and Rebeckah. Tom thought Aaron fancied him. Aaron started a relationship with Faye, then took on Jay's Wolf Pack, after they drove Mark out. Then Jemma arrived, an ex-Gladiator, and Faye's sister. Big Brother messed with Aaron's head some more, by allowing the results of nominations to be altered. And finally, the friends' and families' nominations were a character assassination of him.

When I first heard the news, I thought allowing friends and families to nominate was a nice 'twist'. But when I watched it unfold in full, it left me feeling a bit sick. It really upset Faye and Aaron, two of the best housemates, and that was a bit difficult to watch. The producers must have known it would happen, and I was left wondering why they did it, why they allowed the distress that it caused, and is still causing.

Is it because Big Brother decides who wins? In the last series, my wife and I worked out pretty quickly that John James Parton wasn't genuine about Josie Gibson, but the producers didn't upset them by introducing family members, or letting relations and friends speak from the outside world, because they knew what big issues would have done to Josie....

So what's the real truth about Aaron and Faye? There's no doubt that Faye's feelings are genuine. I do think that at the beginning of their relationship, Faye was primarily a part of Aaron's game to reach the final. But as things went on, I think Faye grew on him more and more, and now he's pretty genuine about it. I don't think the relationship will work in the outside world, but that's not the point. Why deeply upset two housemates that have contributed so much?

It's true Aaron's a big gameplayer, he has been from the start. He's trying to win it for his son. But it's the gameplay, and depth of personality that makes him so engaging, and I doubt if the series would have held much interest without him. The introduction of his girl's sister was bad enough, but for me, the character assassination was a step too far. If Aaron walks, or doesn't make the final because of how he's been treated, I won't be watching anymore. And I think many thousands would be joining me.

So who's going to win? Even though I'd like it to be Aaron, I've currently got;

1. Jay (same as last week).
2. Aaron (same as last week).
3. Faye (same as last week).
4. Louise (new entry).
5. Alex (down 1 from last week).

For my previous posts on house dynamics, please see http://stevestonechat.blogspot.com/2011/10/whos-going-to-win-big-brother-after.html, http://stevestonechat.blogspot.com/2011/10/whos-going-to-win-big-brother-171011.html, http://stevestonechat.blogspot.com/2011/10/british-big-brother-anton-is-he-going.html, http://stevestonechat.blogspot.com/2011/10/british-big-brother-nominations-update.html, http://stevestonechat.blogspot.com/2011/10/whos-going-to-win-british-big-brother.html and http://stevestonechat.blogspot.com/2011/09/who-is-going-to-win-british-big-brother.html

Oh, and if you've got a moment more, please do take a look at my series of time travel novels, at the top of this blog. I sometimes think Aaron wishes he could travel back in time, just a few days....

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