Who's Going To Win Big Brother? October 17 Nominations Forecast

I did mention in my last entry that the feat of climbing enough steps to scale Ben Nevis might save Anton over Aden, but I was still quite surprised to see Anton stay. Although there seems to be a happier feel to the house now, he won't change his confrontational ways much. Will receive six nominations today; from Aaron, Harry, Faye, Jemma, Alex and Louise. Will be put up for eviction with one other person (see below), and will be evicted on Friday.

Louise, in the middle, there. I've always believed her to be a clever gameplayer, sitting back and staying out of trouble, with a plan to emerge from the pack later. This week has proven just what a gameplayer she is. She backed off Jay, telling him last Monday that she wanted to cool off, when she thought he might be put up for eviction against Aaron. But she was all over Jay again like a rash, when she realised that he wasn't going anywhere, because Aden and Anton had also been put up.

She's emerged a little from her shell this week, and has got involved a little more. She certainly has the looks and personality to win, emerging from between the warring Jay and Aaron factions. But after finally having the opportunity to listen to her at length, I no longer believe that she has sufficient substance to win. Will receive one nomination today from Jemma.

Did you notice that Jay all but stopped swearing, after it was revealed he was up for eviction last week? Last Monday's nomination results also made him realise that his Wolf Pack was losing the battle with Aaron's group, and he's been trying to make peace ever since, even summoning Aaron for a private chat in the garden, after Aden was evicted.

I do think Jay is the most genuine of the remaining housemates, even though he knows the game for him is about how to get rid of Aaron. I learnt this week that Jay would have made the final of Katie Price's reality show, but for his Big Brother involvement. There's something engaging about him, and he'll be more and more active, as time goes on. Will gain three nominations today; from Aaron, Harry and Faye.

Aaron is one of the biggest gameplayers in Big Brother history, but is deep and fascinating, in a way Nasty Nick and Marcus Akin were. His plan was always to use his group to get Aaron and Aden out, before targeting isolated Jay. The way people react to that final, inevitable battle will determine the outcome of the series. Aaron or Jay could still win, but it's just as likely that a neutral will take advantage, emerging as winner. I'm sure Aaron was surprised that Anton stayed over Aden, but he should succeed in his aim of getting them both out, before this week is through.

The house is getting to Aaron, though, sometimes compromising his gameplay. He did himself no favours with his long strop over the frosted flakes fight, and will pick up one extra nomination today because of that. Don't be surprised if he tries to sabotage the shopping task again this week. It's a weapon again Jay, who needs food more than Aaron and Harry do. The producers have recognised this tactic, I think, and Big Brother has begun to introduce easy-to-win tasks to gain late night suppers.

Aaron will stick with Faye, now that false Louise has gone back to Jay. The relationship with Faye will get Aaron to the final, but I think he'll have to use his son as his reason for wanting to win, to have a chance of finishing first. He'll probably work that one out in the last couple of weeks. Will pick up four nominations today; from Anton, Jay, Tom and Louise. So will be put up for eviction against Anton. Yesterday's strop saved Jay from being put up as well, I think.

Harry's continued to grow on me. Will vote with Aaron, regardless of his personal opinions. He could make the final, but I don't think a fox hunter can win. Will receive one nomination today from Jay.

Faye's come out of her shell this week a bit, and for me, has demonstrated more substance than Louise. Aaron will carry her to the final, but I think she has worked out that if she backs off a bit from him, closer to the end, she could win on individual personality. She's beginning to remind me of Kate Lawler, when she spats with Aaron, and especially when she puts her hair up. Needs to stop arguing with her sister, though, or she could be nominated heavily next week. And in the near future, at least, she might not survive an eviction battle with Aaron or Jay, or both. Will pick up two nominations today; from Anton and Tom.

That's Alex, on the left, there. Up to now, I've dismissed her as a potential winner, because she's such an airhead. But for the first time, I now believe that she could win. Like Sophie Reade and Rachel Rice, it would be for all the wrong reasons, she has up to now contributed even less than they did. But she's determined to stay positive and carefree, even when chaos is going on all around her, and that's why she could emerge as the winner, from between whatever is left of the two warring factions.

Nice touch by the housemates, getting the expensive hair extensions she wanted from last week's shopping budget. She needed the extensions to help disgiuise her plain looks and personality. Will gain no nominations today.

Tom's lightened up a bit, this week. Forming the new fun pair with Alex is a good move for him. But he's a naive backstabber, and will eventually be caught out. Will gain no nominations today.

Jemma's a bit detached on occasion, like most latecomers. Her submissiveness to Faye doesn't mirror her bravado to others, and to the outside world. Will probably be the next out, after Anton. Will pick up one nomination today, from Alex.

So who's going to win? This year, the dynamics are such that it's hard to pick a winner, but I've now got;

1. Faye (up 4 from last week).
2. Jay (up 1).
3. Aaron (down 1).
4. Harry (same as last week).
5. Louise (down 4).

For my previous posts on house dynamics, please visit http://stevestonechat.blogspot.com/2011/10/british-big-brother-anton-is-he-going.html, http://stevestonechat.blogspot.com/2011/10/british-big-brother-nominations-update.html, http://stevestonechat.blogspot.com/2011/10/whos-going-to-win-british-big-brother.html and http://stevestonechat.blogspot.com/2011/09/who-is-going-to-win-british-big-brother.html

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