Who's Going to Win the Big Brother Final?

I was worried, when I heard Channel 5 were going to have a crack at screening Big Brother, but I must say that the current series has been excellent, as has Brian Dowling. Of all the series to date, this topsy-turvy one is probably the most difficult to call, but here's my take on it;

Louise, at the centre, is more of a gameplayer than she lets on.  In the early weeks, she sat back, without doing or saying too much. She has looks and personality, and decided to stay out of trouble, hoping to emerge from the pack, when the field narrowed a bit.

She saw Jay as her golden opportunity to reach the final. He's besotted with her, but although she has developed some true feelings for him, she's not quite genuine. The biggest giveaway was when she dumped him one Sunday, because she thought he was going to be put up for eviction against Aaron, only to take Jay back the very next day, when she realised he wasn't going anywhere, because Anton and Aden were put up for eviction as well. I'm sure that outside the house, she'll keep it going with him for a while to get magazine deals, but she'll eventually discard him, and will end up a footballer's wife.

Louise is nevertheless a nice person, and since emerging from her shell, she has demonstrated top-girl personality and looks. But apart from her ongoing association with Jay, she hasn't really done or said much. The relationship with Jay has also revealed her to be a little shallow and vulgar, so I don't think she can win. May well be evicted, this coming Thursday night.

Tom was in terrible trouble in the early weeks, as all too often, he often couldn't hide his true bitchy, backstabbing nature. In the early running, he was fortunate not to be put up for eviction, which gave him just enough time to formulate his one and only attempt at true gameplay - his engineering of the 'fun' partnership with Alex. He would have been gone a long time ago, but for that, and he knows it.

To be fair, the pair's antics have often been good to watch. Tom's good fun, when the mood takes him, but still struggles on occasion to contain his spiteful streak. The nasty side of Tom means he can't win, but he might just make the final, surviving eviction over Louise on Thursday.

  
Alex, on the left, has in truth contributed little more than her smile. The long hair extensions were important to her, because they are the only thing that disguise her mediocre looks, which are as plain as her airhead personality, and often unintelligible speech.

But she may well win. She was quiet in the early weeks, but the 'fun' partnership with Tom gave her the change to emerge a little. She knew it as well, and once the partnership had started, she began to visit the Diary Room more often, to tell the public how she was doing. Like Mark, her efforts to entertain often feel a bit forced, but her happy-go-lucky nature could win the series, because consistently smiling through all the conflict has made her look good, against the other housemates.

People who sit on the fence, paint a smile, and don't do or say very much can win Big Brother, look at Rachel Rice and Sophie Reade. Alex has contributed even less than they did, but might win by default, as she's the only one who has steered clear of conflict, which has possibly generated enough reasons why the others can't win.

The producers are trying to bolster Alex's chances, by giving her more coverage this week. But the one thing that might hurt her chances was the revelation that she once short-changed a blind person to buy her own lunch, a tale that indicates she's not as squeaky-clean as she seems.

Jay, a brash, but likeable Northener. He's been playing a game, from the very start. He formed and led the 'Wolf Pack', in an attempt to dominate others and subtlely influence nomination voting, with the aim of eliminating housemates from the series, one by one.

Jay always perceived arch-enemy Aaron to be his greatest threat. He employed a strategy to eliminate those around Aaron first, before concentrating on the main target. But the plan didn't work out, so Jay cleverly struck up an awkward friendship with Aaron, after the last Wolf Pack member was evicted. As part of his gameplay, Jay also consciously cut back on swearing, from the point he was first put up for eviction.

He's the most genuine of all the housemates, and has often been entertaining to watch. He has a large female fan base, and a small chance to win. Last night, he finally resolved the latest conflict with Aaron, which erupted over the purchase of birthday presents for Tom and Alex. It was hard for Jay to swallow his pride, and discuss it again with Aaron, but I think he knew he had to do it, to keep any chance of winning alive.

Jay's vulgar side will probably prevent him from winning the series. In particular, wiping his bum on Louise's pillowcase didn't do him any favours.

Aaron is trying to win it for his son, and is the biggest gameplayer in Big Brother history. He's very cleverly put himself at the centre of most things, almost from the beginning. The flirting with Maisy, then Rebeckah. The conflict with Tom, who thought Aaron fancied him. Taking on Jay's Wolf Pack, when they forced his friend Mark out. Deliberately failing shopping tasks, to deny Jay and Anton food. The tumultuous relationship with Faye - I think he developed some genuine feelings for her, but she was also part of his game to reach the final. The conflict with Faye's sister, who arrived as a newcomer, to stir the relationship up. The character assassination of the friends' and families' nominations. The electric shock nominations, when he voted contrary to the other housemates' plan to stage a result. The conflict with Jay and Louise, over birthday presents for Alex and Tom.

Originally, I thought Aaron was making a big mistake, when he objected to Louise and Jay spending £1,000 of the prize money on Tom and Alex. Jay and Louise were trying to gain viewer votes by displaying generosity, but there was also a genuine warmth to their desire to purchase the presents. Ignoring them for a few days initially made Aaron look isolated and bad, but then he very cleverly turned the situation around. He began to regularly play Tom and Alex's silly games, which eventually made Louise and Jay look isolated instead, and perhaps a little guilty of trying to buy votes. Eventually, Aaron reduced muscleman Jay to tears, forcing him to make the first move to reconcile the situation, which in turn made Aaron look good, for agreeing to bury the hatchet. And the more I thought about it, the more I realised that Aaron had engineered the situation, to re-ignite the conflict with Jay, providing one last opportunity to push his buttons. And the fact that Jay eventually got warned by Big Brother for becoming too aggressive makes Aaron an even bigger schemer than 'Nasty Nick' Bateman. 

You see, sometimes it's been upfront, and sometimes it's been underlying, but the simmering battle between Aaron and Jay has been the defining feature of the series, and Aaron knows it. The winner of the battle is not quite yet decided, but Aaron's clearly had the upper hand to date.

If winning Big Brother was judged by the contribution of individual housemates, Aaron's got it won, hands-down. But gameplaying is unpopular in many circles, and Aaron's strops and sulkiness when things don't go his way might cost him. From an early stage, I thought the ongoing conflict between Aaron and Jay would ultimately determine the winner, but there's also the danger it might scupper them both, and let an agreeable neutral through to win.


So who is going to win the Big Brother Final? Although I want Aaron to win, my final prediction is;

1. Alex (up 2 from last week).
2. Aaron (down 1).
3. Jay (down 1).
4. Tom (up 1).

For all my previous November, October and September posts on house dynamics, please check out the right-hand sidebar, towards the top of this blog.

Who's Going To Win Big Brother? After The Electric Shock Nominations....

Aaron's had a bit of a bad week, hasn't he? The electric shock nominations on Sunday night showed just what a gameplayer he is. The remaining six housemates came up with a plan to nominate each other in turn, so they would all face the final public eviction vote together. Aaron played along because he was first to nominate, but when Big Brother wouldn't accept an engineered result, the votes were scrapped, and the housemates had to start all over again.

In the revised voting, Aaron wasn't first to nominate two housemates to face eviction. Alex nominated before him, and from the look on her face, I believe her nominations were genuine. Recognising he had been given a chance to put Louise up for eviction, and guarantee his place in next week's final, Aaron played the game and nominated her, knowing that if she voted for Tom or Alex, Louise would face four opponents in the public vote - not a bad place to be.

What happened next was edited out of the main highlights show, but was shown on the fanzine 'Big Brother's Bit on the Side'. In the highlights show, Louise was shown nominating Faye, meaning that just the two of them now face eviction. But Louise actually nominated Tom first, before Big Brother forced her to change her engineered vote.

Aaron took all the blame for what happened. He could have nominated differently, meaning that the plan for all of the housemates to be put up for eviction together could have still been fulfilled, but he chose to play the game instead. And why not? It is a game, and he's trying to win it for his son. It's fair to say that he deliberately voted contradictory to the plan, and that Louise faces the public eviction vote because of it. But for housemates to blame him for Faye being included in the eviction vote was unfair, since Louise had the last nominations, and could have voted for Alex instead of Tom. And under that scenario, Faye would have faced the public vote anyway, albeit against four opponents, instead of just one.

Although blaming Aaron for the debacle was unfair, his stroppy, sulky reaction to Faye's venomous attitude didn't do him any favours, especially given that just the night before, he had withdrawn from the group because he didn't like the choice of music for a party. Tuesday night's pointless argument with Faye over her choice of clothes for another musical evening was also not good to watch.

Everything however has settled down, since then. Aaron has won back Faye's affections, and has even started to get on with Tom a bit. He's more full-on in his relationship with Faye now, in an effort to keep her in the house over Louise this Friday.

I still think Aaron can win. He's deep and engaging, and has been at the centre of everything, from the start. The flirting with Maisy and Rebeckah. Then Tom thought Aaron fancied him. Aaron took up with Faye, and then took on Jay's Wolf Pack, when they forced Mark out. Then Faye's sister arrived as a newcomer, to stir everything up. The friends' and families' nominations were a character assassination of Aaron, and the electric shock nominations were a disaster for him, albeit a little unfairly.

Throughout it all, the only thing Aaron has done 'wrong' is playing a game, a game which Big Brother has often made very difficult for him. Yes, he's the biggest gameplayer in the show's long history, and although he does have some genuine feelings for Faye, she has always been part of his game to reach the final. But he's contributed the most out of all the housemates, and I think the show would have been quite dull without him.

I do think that one more extended, sulky strop will destroy Aaron's chances, but if he ups his game in the final week, and stays out of trouble, he could win. He does have a big fan base, which appears to have stayed loyal.

Louise, in the middle, there. Big Brother did her a favour by only showing her electric shock nomination of Faye in the highlights show. It made it look as though she had sacrificed herself to keep Tom in the house for Alex's forthcoming birthday party, even though she had actually nominated Tom first.

Louise is a bit more of a gameplayer than you might think. She stayed quiet, keeping herself out of trouble in the early weeks, knowing her looks and personality could emerge from a narrower field. Then she took up with Jay, thinking he might carry her to the final. I do think she has developed some genuine feelings for him, but knows it can't work on the outside. Otherwise, why did she drop him like a stone, for the one day she thought he was going to be put up for eviction against Aaron?

She has the looks and personality to win, there's no doubt about that. But coming out of her shell has revealed her as a little shallow and vulgar, and that's why she can't win. She might well survive this Friday's eviction ahead of Faye, as a lot of people think she's 100% genuine with Jay. But whilst she'll keep the relationship with him going on the outside for magazine deals, she'll eventually drop him, and end up a footballer's wife.

Faye, a naive and paranoid 19-year-old. Although Aaron often doesn't say the right thing to her, she is inclined to start an argument over practically nothing. But she's a lovely person, and has substance. I think she's worked out that despite her feelings for Aaron, he isn't for her on the outside. But she's now gone full-on with him, thinking it will keep her in the house over Louise this Friday. I think that plan might backfire, since many people might be inclined to phone in and save Louise, just to see how Aaron will react to Faye's absence. Aaron fans might also want to save Louise, to give him a clean slate, and a chance to be himself in the final week.

Despite Louise being bookies' favourite to be evicted this week, I do think Faye will go. The reasons above are the wrong ones, since Faye has contributed much more than Louise. But that's the way it goes. It'll be a shame, since with a strong final week, I think Faye had a small chance of winning. But regardless, juicy magazine deals with Aaron await on the outside.

It's hard not to like Jay, a brash but very genuine northener. But his genuine feelings for Louise are not quite reciprocated, I fear. He's upped his game this week, and has been both entertaining and caring. His attempts to further his friendship with Aaron has done him some favours, particularly given that they were long time enemies. Jay's efforts to reconcile Faye and Aaron's relationship were also admirable.

Jay's got a growing fan base of girl voters, and could still win, with a big final week. But I don't think someone who thinks it's funny to wipe his bum on his girlfriend's pillowcase can quite do it.

Alex, on the left. Her fun, happy-go-lucky attitude may well win it for her, combined with the fact that she needs the money more than most - but the revelation that she once short-changed a blind person to get her own lunch did her no favours at all. She's made a big effort to be more entertaining this week. But she would be a default winner for me, in the sense that she might win because there are reasons the others can't. In truth, she has contributed little more than a smile. Even previous fence-sitters Sophie Reade and Rachel Rice did a little bit more than that.

Did you notice that Alex was preening her false hair extenstions in the mirror, even when trying to walk though a trap consisting of strings between two walls, whilst balancing glasses on a tray during the 'All-White' task? That's because she knows the mass of hair extensions are the only thing that disguise her mediocre looks, which are in reality as plain as her personality. She's a complete airhead to boot, and I can only understand about 50% of what little she says.

If her coming birthday bash is more sparkly than Anton's, you'll know Big Brother wants her to win. It would be her only big storyline to date.

You've got to hand it to him, he's been entertaining this week. But the fun partnership he engineered with Alex is the only thing that's kept him in so long. As well as making me laugh a few times, he's also annoyed me with his regular bitching and backstabbing against Aaron, including a couple of nasty insults during the 'Love Story' task.

Although Tom can be fun when the mood takes him, he can't help his bitchy, backstabbing nature, which he has failed to contain on a number of occasions throughout the series. My wife, Debi, says that it's the 'queen' in him. I think that's about right, and his nastiness is the reason he can't win.

So who is going to win? I'm going to stick to my guns, and not predict a 'default' winner;

1. Aaron (up 1 from last week).
2. Jay (down 1).
3. Alex (up 2).
4. Louise (same as last week).
5. Tom (new entry).

Watch this space next week, for my final Big Brother prediction. For my previous posts on house dynamics, check out the October and September posts on the right-hand sidebar.

Who's Going To Win Big Brother? The Final Shout

Alex, on the left there, has upped her game just a little this week. Winning the boat-rowing task did her chances a favour.

And she's started to come to the Diary Room a bit more often, to tell Big Brother and the public how she's doing. But it all feels a little forced, like Mark's efforts to use the Diary Room as an entertainment platform.

Her positive attitude at all times might just allow her to emerge from the relationship-based arguments and faction-based backstabbing (see below for more on these things), and win. But for me, she hasn't contributed nearly enough, and if I wanted to watch four-year old games, I would have watched PlaySchool, not Big Brother.

A clever move on Tom's part, instigating the still-developing relationship with Alex. He'd be long gone, but for that, and he thinks Alex will carry him to the final. But underneath his contribution to the new fun partnership, he's bitchy, backstabbing and spiteful. The pairing with Alex may well result in him finishing sixth, keeping him in over Harry.

Have you noticed that Jay has almost completely stopped swearing, since last being put up for eviction?  He's the biggest character left, and the most genuine of the remaining housemates. Underneath all the muscle and bravado, there's a nice and caring guy. He's even begun to get chummy with his old enemy, Aaron. Jay's feelings for Louise are real, although I doubt they're fully reciprocated.

Not fully participating in a couple of tasks did him no favours. He could still win with a big effort towards the end, but it'll take a lot to make people forget that he was a part of Anton's lies about Aaron, after the crypt task.

Louise, Jay's girl, at the centre of the picture. She appears to have developed some genuine feelings for Jay, but I think they're largely false, and are designed to get her to the final. I'm sure she fancies him, but knows he's not for her, when they get out of the house. That's why she dropped him like a stone, when she thought he would be up for eviction against Aaron. She took Jay back the very next day, when she realised he wasn't going anywhere, because Anton and Aden were up for eviction as well.

Louise lacks substance, and will ultimately end up as a footballer's wife.

Harry's continued to grow on me, despite becoming more stuck-up, of late. But the three relationships (Jay and Louise, Aaron and Faye, Tom and Alex) are the defining feature of the show now, and he's outside of that picture. I don't think a fox hunter can win, and he'll finish behind Tom, if put up for eviction next week.

Jemma was against Aaron's relationship with her sister Faye, before she came into the house as a late newcomer. Most of it is an older sister's natural reaction, to Faye becoming involved with an older man.

But Jemma played her cards close to her chest for a while, pretending to give Aaron the benefit of the doubt. Anton's lies about Aaron's attitude towards Faye pushed Jemma over the edge, prompting Jemma to confront Aaron, sooner than she otherwise might have done. Anton knew that would be the case, of course, and the lies were his parting shot to Aaron, one of the last actions of the dying Wolf Pack faction. And unfortunately, Aaron was never going to forgive Jemma, once she had accused him of being false with Faye.

I think Jemma is very competitive, but is confrontational with it, in a spiteful and bitchy way. I don't like the way she celebrates Aaron's misfortunes. That's not sporting, and it's not Big Brother. And if anyone is trying to mess with Faye's head, it's Jemma, not Aaron.

Jemma is up for eviction against Aaron this week, and I very much hope she goes. But unfortunately, there's just a chance that Jemma's prior appearances on Gladiators might generate enough votes to keep her in, even though Aaron has a big fan base. She doesn't care about Big Brother anymore, she knows she can't win. She wants to go home, because she knows that she can't stop arguing with Faye, like sisters often do. If Jemma does stay in on Friday, she'll walk off the series, mission against Aaron accomplished.

I only heard this week that Faye is just 19 years old. She comes across older than that, except for her teenage paranoia, and propensity to argue over very little. Mind you, Faye has plenty to be paranoid about, she has seen that her sister and mother don't believe Aaron is good for her. Their view is a natural reaction to a 19-year-old family member falling for a 30-year-old guy, and I'm sure that the families of the other contestants had that in mind, when they nominated Aaron to face eviction against Jemma (see my previous post http://stevestonechat.blogspot.com/2011/10/british-big-brother-families-and.html).

Faye could still win, she has substance. But it'll take a big effort towards the end, given all the arguments she's had with Jemma and Aaron.

Dear old Aaron, he's been through a lot, hasn't he? Most things have revolved around him from the start. He flirted with Maisy and Rebeckah. Tom thought Aaron fancied him. Aaron started a relationship with Faye, then took on Jay's Wolf Pack, after they drove Mark out. Then Jemma arrived, an ex-Gladiator, and Faye's sister. Big Brother messed with Aaron's head some more, by allowing the results of nominations to be altered. And finally, the friends' and families' nominations were a character assassination of him.

When I first heard the news, I thought allowing friends and families to nominate was a nice 'twist'. But when I watched it unfold in full, it left me feeling a bit sick. It really upset Faye and Aaron, two of the best housemates, and that was a bit difficult to watch. The producers must have known it would happen, and I was left wondering why they did it, why they allowed the distress that it caused, and is still causing.

Is it because Big Brother decides who wins? In the last series, my wife and I worked out pretty quickly that John James Parton wasn't genuine about Josie Gibson, but the producers didn't upset them by introducing family members, or letting relations and friends speak from the outside world, because they knew what big issues would have done to Josie....

So what's the real truth about Aaron and Faye? There's no doubt that Faye's feelings are genuine. I do think that at the beginning of their relationship, Faye was primarily a part of Aaron's game to reach the final. But as things went on, I think Faye grew on him more and more, and now he's pretty genuine about it. I don't think the relationship will work in the outside world, but that's not the point. Why deeply upset two housemates that have contributed so much?

It's true Aaron's a big gameplayer, he has been from the start. He's trying to win it for his son. But it's the gameplay, and depth of personality that makes him so engaging, and I doubt if the series would have held much interest without him. The introduction of his girl's sister was bad enough, but for me, the character assassination was a step too far. If Aaron walks, or doesn't make the final because of how he's been treated, I won't be watching anymore. And I think many thousands would be joining me.

So who's going to win? Even though I'd like it to be Aaron, I've currently got;

1. Jay (same as last week).
2. Aaron (same as last week).
3. Faye (same as last week).
4. Louise (new entry).
5. Alex (down 1 from last week).

For my previous posts on house dynamics, please see http://stevestonechat.blogspot.com/2011/10/whos-going-to-win-big-brother-after.html, http://stevestonechat.blogspot.com/2011/10/whos-going-to-win-big-brother-171011.html, http://stevestonechat.blogspot.com/2011/10/british-big-brother-anton-is-he-going.html, http://stevestonechat.blogspot.com/2011/10/british-big-brother-nominations-update.html, http://stevestonechat.blogspot.com/2011/10/whos-going-to-win-british-big-brother.html and http://stevestonechat.blogspot.com/2011/09/who-is-going-to-win-british-big-brother.html

Oh, and if you've got a moment more, please do take a look at my series of time travel novels, at the top of this blog. I sometimes think Aaron wishes he could travel back in time, just a few days....

British Big Brother - Anton - Is He Going To Kick Off Tonight?

You've got to give the kid some credit. Even though, during the 'Stranded' task, he chose to save Faye just to wind Aaron up, you have to admit that it was a Herculean effort to ascend enough stairs on a climbing machine to top Ben Nevis.

I don't think it's enough to save him from eviction tonight, but there is a just a small chance that Aden might beat him to the door. Anton's later sexist rant to Louise didn't do him any favours, either.

What I'm wondering about tonight is Anton's reaction to the near certainty of eviction. The pot has been simmering between him and Aaron for a while now, and is close to boiling over. Anton has a real nasty streak in him, which he's struggling to keep bottled up, and he's done well so far to restrict his feelings towards Aaron to a few very choice comments.

Aaron's planned it this way all along, of course. He quite bravely decided to take the Wolf Pack (Jay, Aden and Anton) on, after they were partly responsible for driving Mark out. That's what the deliberate sabotage of the last two shopping tasks were all about, and he's been pushing their buttons more and more lately, trying to prise a reaction out of them that will put them in a bad light.

The question is, will hearing news of his eviction push Anton over the edge? I think he might just conclude that it's over for him, so why not give Aaron a mouthful, shove or worse on the way out?

I hope BB security are primed up, just in case......

For my previous posts on house dynamics, please visit http://stevestonechat.blogspot.com/2011/10/british-big-brother-nominations-update.html, http://stevestonechat.blogspot.com/2011/10/whos-going-to-win-british-big-brother.html and http://stevestonechat.blogspot.com/2011/09/who-is-going-to-win-british-big-brother.html

And for an update on who I think might win the series, watch this space over the weekend, after tonight's eviction....