Who's Going to Win the Big Brother Final?

I was worried, when I heard Channel 5 were going to have a crack at screening Big Brother, but I must say that the current series has been excellent, as has Brian Dowling. Of all the series to date, this topsy-turvy one is probably the most difficult to call, but here's my take on it;

Louise, at the centre, is more of a gameplayer than she lets on.  In the early weeks, she sat back, without doing or saying too much. She has looks and personality, and decided to stay out of trouble, hoping to emerge from the pack, when the field narrowed a bit.

She saw Jay as her golden opportunity to reach the final. He's besotted with her, but although she has developed some true feelings for him, she's not quite genuine. The biggest giveaway was when she dumped him one Sunday, because she thought he was going to be put up for eviction against Aaron, only to take Jay back the very next day, when she realised he wasn't going anywhere, because Anton and Aden were put up for eviction as well. I'm sure that outside the house, she'll keep it going with him for a while to get magazine deals, but she'll eventually discard him, and will end up a footballer's wife.

Louise is nevertheless a nice person, and since emerging from her shell, she has demonstrated top-girl personality and looks. But apart from her ongoing association with Jay, she hasn't really done or said much. The relationship with Jay has also revealed her to be a little shallow and vulgar, so I don't think she can win. May well be evicted, this coming Thursday night.

Tom was in terrible trouble in the early weeks, as all too often, he often couldn't hide his true bitchy, backstabbing nature. In the early running, he was fortunate not to be put up for eviction, which gave him just enough time to formulate his one and only attempt at true gameplay - his engineering of the 'fun' partnership with Alex. He would have been gone a long time ago, but for that, and he knows it.

To be fair, the pair's antics have often been good to watch. Tom's good fun, when the mood takes him, but still struggles on occasion to contain his spiteful streak. The nasty side of Tom means he can't win, but he might just make the final, surviving eviction over Louise on Thursday.

  
Alex, on the left, has in truth contributed little more than her smile. The long hair extensions were important to her, because they are the only thing that disguise her mediocre looks, which are as plain as her airhead personality, and often unintelligible speech.

But she may well win. She was quiet in the early weeks, but the 'fun' partnership with Tom gave her the change to emerge a little. She knew it as well, and once the partnership had started, she began to visit the Diary Room more often, to tell the public how she was doing. Like Mark, her efforts to entertain often feel a bit forced, but her happy-go-lucky nature could win the series, because consistently smiling through all the conflict has made her look good, against the other housemates.

People who sit on the fence, paint a smile, and don't do or say very much can win Big Brother, look at Rachel Rice and Sophie Reade. Alex has contributed even less than they did, but might win by default, as she's the only one who has steered clear of conflict, which has possibly generated enough reasons why the others can't win.

The producers are trying to bolster Alex's chances, by giving her more coverage this week. But the one thing that might hurt her chances was the revelation that she once short-changed a blind person to buy her own lunch, a tale that indicates she's not as squeaky-clean as she seems.

Jay, a brash, but likeable Northener. He's been playing a game, from the very start. He formed and led the 'Wolf Pack', in an attempt to dominate others and subtlely influence nomination voting, with the aim of eliminating housemates from the series, one by one.

Jay always perceived arch-enemy Aaron to be his greatest threat. He employed a strategy to eliminate those around Aaron first, before concentrating on the main target. But the plan didn't work out, so Jay cleverly struck up an awkward friendship with Aaron, after the last Wolf Pack member was evicted. As part of his gameplay, Jay also consciously cut back on swearing, from the point he was first put up for eviction.

He's the most genuine of all the housemates, and has often been entertaining to watch. He has a large female fan base, and a small chance to win. Last night, he finally resolved the latest conflict with Aaron, which erupted over the purchase of birthday presents for Tom and Alex. It was hard for Jay to swallow his pride, and discuss it again with Aaron, but I think he knew he had to do it, to keep any chance of winning alive.

Jay's vulgar side will probably prevent him from winning the series. In particular, wiping his bum on Louise's pillowcase didn't do him any favours.

Aaron is trying to win it for his son, and is the biggest gameplayer in Big Brother history. He's very cleverly put himself at the centre of most things, almost from the beginning. The flirting with Maisy, then Rebeckah. The conflict with Tom, who thought Aaron fancied him. Taking on Jay's Wolf Pack, when they forced his friend Mark out. Deliberately failing shopping tasks, to deny Jay and Anton food. The tumultuous relationship with Faye - I think he developed some genuine feelings for her, but she was also part of his game to reach the final. The conflict with Faye's sister, who arrived as a newcomer, to stir the relationship up. The character assassination of the friends' and families' nominations. The electric shock nominations, when he voted contrary to the other housemates' plan to stage a result. The conflict with Jay and Louise, over birthday presents for Alex and Tom.

Originally, I thought Aaron was making a big mistake, when he objected to Louise and Jay spending £1,000 of the prize money on Tom and Alex. Jay and Louise were trying to gain viewer votes by displaying generosity, but there was also a genuine warmth to their desire to purchase the presents. Ignoring them for a few days initially made Aaron look isolated and bad, but then he very cleverly turned the situation around. He began to regularly play Tom and Alex's silly games, which eventually made Louise and Jay look isolated instead, and perhaps a little guilty of trying to buy votes. Eventually, Aaron reduced muscleman Jay to tears, forcing him to make the first move to reconcile the situation, which in turn made Aaron look good, for agreeing to bury the hatchet. And the more I thought about it, the more I realised that Aaron had engineered the situation, to re-ignite the conflict with Jay, providing one last opportunity to push his buttons. And the fact that Jay eventually got warned by Big Brother for becoming too aggressive makes Aaron an even bigger schemer than 'Nasty Nick' Bateman. 

You see, sometimes it's been upfront, and sometimes it's been underlying, but the simmering battle between Aaron and Jay has been the defining feature of the series, and Aaron knows it. The winner of the battle is not quite yet decided, but Aaron's clearly had the upper hand to date.

If winning Big Brother was judged by the contribution of individual housemates, Aaron's got it won, hands-down. But gameplaying is unpopular in many circles, and Aaron's strops and sulkiness when things don't go his way might cost him. From an early stage, I thought the ongoing conflict between Aaron and Jay would ultimately determine the winner, but there's also the danger it might scupper them both, and let an agreeable neutral through to win.


So who is going to win the Big Brother Final? Although I want Aaron to win, my final prediction is;

1. Alex (up 2 from last week).
2. Aaron (down 1).
3. Jay (down 1).
4. Tom (up 1).

For all my previous November, October and September posts on house dynamics, please check out the right-hand sidebar, towards the top of this blog.

Who's Going To Win Big Brother? After The Electric Shock Nominations....

Aaron's had a bit of a bad week, hasn't he? The electric shock nominations on Sunday night showed just what a gameplayer he is. The remaining six housemates came up with a plan to nominate each other in turn, so they would all face the final public eviction vote together. Aaron played along because he was first to nominate, but when Big Brother wouldn't accept an engineered result, the votes were scrapped, and the housemates had to start all over again.

In the revised voting, Aaron wasn't first to nominate two housemates to face eviction. Alex nominated before him, and from the look on her face, I believe her nominations were genuine. Recognising he had been given a chance to put Louise up for eviction, and guarantee his place in next week's final, Aaron played the game and nominated her, knowing that if she voted for Tom or Alex, Louise would face four opponents in the public vote - not a bad place to be.

What happened next was edited out of the main highlights show, but was shown on the fanzine 'Big Brother's Bit on the Side'. In the highlights show, Louise was shown nominating Faye, meaning that just the two of them now face eviction. But Louise actually nominated Tom first, before Big Brother forced her to change her engineered vote.

Aaron took all the blame for what happened. He could have nominated differently, meaning that the plan for all of the housemates to be put up for eviction together could have still been fulfilled, but he chose to play the game instead. And why not? It is a game, and he's trying to win it for his son. It's fair to say that he deliberately voted contradictory to the plan, and that Louise faces the public eviction vote because of it. But for housemates to blame him for Faye being included in the eviction vote was unfair, since Louise had the last nominations, and could have voted for Alex instead of Tom. And under that scenario, Faye would have faced the public vote anyway, albeit against four opponents, instead of just one.

Although blaming Aaron for the debacle was unfair, his stroppy, sulky reaction to Faye's venomous attitude didn't do him any favours, especially given that just the night before, he had withdrawn from the group because he didn't like the choice of music for a party. Tuesday night's pointless argument with Faye over her choice of clothes for another musical evening was also not good to watch.

Everything however has settled down, since then. Aaron has won back Faye's affections, and has even started to get on with Tom a bit. He's more full-on in his relationship with Faye now, in an effort to keep her in the house over Louise this Friday.

I still think Aaron can win. He's deep and engaging, and has been at the centre of everything, from the start. The flirting with Maisy and Rebeckah. Then Tom thought Aaron fancied him. Aaron took up with Faye, and then took on Jay's Wolf Pack, when they forced Mark out. Then Faye's sister arrived as a newcomer, to stir everything up. The friends' and families' nominations were a character assassination of Aaron, and the electric shock nominations were a disaster for him, albeit a little unfairly.

Throughout it all, the only thing Aaron has done 'wrong' is playing a game, a game which Big Brother has often made very difficult for him. Yes, he's the biggest gameplayer in the show's long history, and although he does have some genuine feelings for Faye, she has always been part of his game to reach the final. But he's contributed the most out of all the housemates, and I think the show would have been quite dull without him.

I do think that one more extended, sulky strop will destroy Aaron's chances, but if he ups his game in the final week, and stays out of trouble, he could win. He does have a big fan base, which appears to have stayed loyal.

Louise, in the middle, there. Big Brother did her a favour by only showing her electric shock nomination of Faye in the highlights show. It made it look as though she had sacrificed herself to keep Tom in the house for Alex's forthcoming birthday party, even though she had actually nominated Tom first.

Louise is a bit more of a gameplayer than you might think. She stayed quiet, keeping herself out of trouble in the early weeks, knowing her looks and personality could emerge from a narrower field. Then she took up with Jay, thinking he might carry her to the final. I do think she has developed some genuine feelings for him, but knows it can't work on the outside. Otherwise, why did she drop him like a stone, for the one day she thought he was going to be put up for eviction against Aaron?

She has the looks and personality to win, there's no doubt about that. But coming out of her shell has revealed her as a little shallow and vulgar, and that's why she can't win. She might well survive this Friday's eviction ahead of Faye, as a lot of people think she's 100% genuine with Jay. But whilst she'll keep the relationship with him going on the outside for magazine deals, she'll eventually drop him, and end up a footballer's wife.

Faye, a naive and paranoid 19-year-old. Although Aaron often doesn't say the right thing to her, she is inclined to start an argument over practically nothing. But she's a lovely person, and has substance. I think she's worked out that despite her feelings for Aaron, he isn't for her on the outside. But she's now gone full-on with him, thinking it will keep her in the house over Louise this Friday. I think that plan might backfire, since many people might be inclined to phone in and save Louise, just to see how Aaron will react to Faye's absence. Aaron fans might also want to save Louise, to give him a clean slate, and a chance to be himself in the final week.

Despite Louise being bookies' favourite to be evicted this week, I do think Faye will go. The reasons above are the wrong ones, since Faye has contributed much more than Louise. But that's the way it goes. It'll be a shame, since with a strong final week, I think Faye had a small chance of winning. But regardless, juicy magazine deals with Aaron await on the outside.

It's hard not to like Jay, a brash but very genuine northener. But his genuine feelings for Louise are not quite reciprocated, I fear. He's upped his game this week, and has been both entertaining and caring. His attempts to further his friendship with Aaron has done him some favours, particularly given that they were long time enemies. Jay's efforts to reconcile Faye and Aaron's relationship were also admirable.

Jay's got a growing fan base of girl voters, and could still win, with a big final week. But I don't think someone who thinks it's funny to wipe his bum on his girlfriend's pillowcase can quite do it.

Alex, on the left. Her fun, happy-go-lucky attitude may well win it for her, combined with the fact that she needs the money more than most - but the revelation that she once short-changed a blind person to get her own lunch did her no favours at all. She's made a big effort to be more entertaining this week. But she would be a default winner for me, in the sense that she might win because there are reasons the others can't. In truth, she has contributed little more than a smile. Even previous fence-sitters Sophie Reade and Rachel Rice did a little bit more than that.

Did you notice that Alex was preening her false hair extenstions in the mirror, even when trying to walk though a trap consisting of strings between two walls, whilst balancing glasses on a tray during the 'All-White' task? That's because she knows the mass of hair extensions are the only thing that disguise her mediocre looks, which are in reality as plain as her personality. She's a complete airhead to boot, and I can only understand about 50% of what little she says.

If her coming birthday bash is more sparkly than Anton's, you'll know Big Brother wants her to win. It would be her only big storyline to date.

You've got to hand it to him, he's been entertaining this week. But the fun partnership he engineered with Alex is the only thing that's kept him in so long. As well as making me laugh a few times, he's also annoyed me with his regular bitching and backstabbing against Aaron, including a couple of nasty insults during the 'Love Story' task.

Although Tom can be fun when the mood takes him, he can't help his bitchy, backstabbing nature, which he has failed to contain on a number of occasions throughout the series. My wife, Debi, says that it's the 'queen' in him. I think that's about right, and his nastiness is the reason he can't win.

So who is going to win? I'm going to stick to my guns, and not predict a 'default' winner;

1. Aaron (up 1 from last week).
2. Jay (down 1).
3. Alex (up 2).
4. Louise (same as last week).
5. Tom (new entry).

Watch this space next week, for my final Big Brother prediction. For my previous posts on house dynamics, check out the October and September posts on the right-hand sidebar.

British Big Brother - Sunday Night Nominations Forecast - Tom v Alex?

In a shock sudden twist, housemates will nominate face-to-face tonight, in place of the normal Monday nomination process. Dressed in Haloween costumes, they will sit in electric chairs, and one vote equals one electric shock for the nominated housemate.

I think the new alliance between Jay and Aaron means something. I believe the two boyfriend-girlfriend pairs of Jay and Louise, and Aaron and Faye will club their nominations together, and put the 'fun' pair of Tom and Alex up for eviction. Tom will go this Friday, leaving Alex isolated in the final week.

I also think only Faye, Alex or Aaron can win now. Faye's been involved in a lot of arguments over the past couple of weeks, and the revelation that Alex once short-changed a blind person to get her own lunch was a bit of a shocker, so it's Aaron for me now.

Watch this space for more, after the nominated housemates are revealed.

British Big Brother - Families And Friends Nominate In Place Of The Housemates!

BREAKING NEWS! In a shocking twist that beats the hell out of last week's interference with the nominations result, housemates' families and friends were today asked to nominate, in place of the housemates themselves;

Aaron’s brother voted for Jem and Jay.
Alex’s mum voted for Faye and Jem.
Faye’s mum voted for Harry and Aaron.
Harry’s girlfriend voted for Jay and Jem.
Jay’s mum voted for Aaron and Faye.
Jem’s boyfriend voted for Aaron and Harry.
Louise’s mum voted for Aaron and Harry,
Tom’s mum voted for Aaron and Jem.

The housemates were apparently stunned, when they watched it all unfold, on video. What about Faye's mum voting for Aaron, Faye's boyfriend?

So Aaron and Jem (pictured) are up for eviction this Friday. For me, it'll be Jem to go. Stay tuned.

Who's Going To Win Big Brother - After The Nominations Twist?

I write my latest post on the series, with a bit of a heavy heart. Having surveyed well-known Big Brother comment sites, it would seem that over 90% of people were against this week's nominations 'twist'. After Anton (above) and Jay were nominated by their fellow housemates, both were given the opportunity to choose one other housemate to face eviction with them. Jay chose Harry, probably because he heard Harry imply that Louise (Jay's squeeze) wasn't the brightest of sparks. Anton chose newcomer Jemma (right), because he knew that she was the only remaining housemate he could beat in the public eviction vote.

I couldn't understand the logic of the nominations twist, in terms of keeping viewers. Viewing figures have been steadily declining, and the large majority of those that remain are long-time Big Brother fans and purists. So why upset the purists by interfering with the nominations process, which for 11 previous series has been the heart and soul of Big Brother? What's the point of blogging, or otherwise trying to predict the winner, if the basic rules of the show are changed on a whim, and the endgame is changed as a result (see below)?

I think the producers did it because they knew that either Jay or Anton would pick Jemma to face eviction. As newcomer, and not a particularly entertaining one at that, she was always the only housemate that Anton had a chance against in the public eviction vote. And truth be told, the producers, knowing Jemma is very likely to be evicted tomorrow, wanted Anton to remain with Jay for at least one more week, to keep things spiced up a bit. I can understand that in a way, but it's not fair on Jemma, who is going to lose her place in the house, despite never having received enough nominations to face the public vote.

So what does it all mean, in terms of who is going to win?

I think Aaron and Jay are beginning to get along a little better now. They're both gameplayers, and have both realised that the other is their greatest threat. It won't take long for Aaron to work out that the remaining Wolf Pack members (Jay and Anton) aren't nominating him anymore. And I think Jay and Aaron will both realise that tactical voting would be a great way to put the dangerous new 'fun pair' of Alex and Tom up for eviction against each other.

So I reckon Aaron's group (Aaron, Harry and Faye) will join Jay's group next week, in nominating Tom and Alex for eviction. Tom will lose that battle, and will be evicted, leaving Alex isolated and extremely vulnerable. Tactical voting will be used the following week to put Alex up again, against Anton. Anton will lose out, and will be evicted, leaving just six housemates.

For me, another important development this week has been Louise becoming more active, but her increased involvement has revealed her to be shallow, and a little vulgar. Faye has also been revealed as a bit of a whiner, and will really have to develop in the final weeks to have a chance of winning.

So this week, I've got the following top five;

1. Jay (up 1 from last week).

2. Aaron (up 1).

3. Faye (down 2).

4. Alex (new entry).

5. Harry (down 1).

Who's Going To Win Big Brother? October 17 Nominations Forecast

I did mention in my last entry that the feat of climbing enough steps to scale Ben Nevis might save Anton over Aden, but I was still quite surprised to see Anton stay. Although there seems to be a happier feel to the house now, he won't change his confrontational ways much. Will receive six nominations today; from Aaron, Harry, Faye, Jemma, Alex and Louise. Will be put up for eviction with one other person (see below), and will be evicted on Friday.

Louise, in the middle, there. I've always believed her to be a clever gameplayer, sitting back and staying out of trouble, with a plan to emerge from the pack later. This week has proven just what a gameplayer she is. She backed off Jay, telling him last Monday that she wanted to cool off, when she thought he might be put up for eviction against Aaron. But she was all over Jay again like a rash, when she realised that he wasn't going anywhere, because Aden and Anton had also been put up.

She's emerged a little from her shell this week, and has got involved a little more. She certainly has the looks and personality to win, emerging from between the warring Jay and Aaron factions. But after finally having the opportunity to listen to her at length, I no longer believe that she has sufficient substance to win. Will receive one nomination today from Jemma.

Did you notice that Jay all but stopped swearing, after it was revealed he was up for eviction last week? Last Monday's nomination results also made him realise that his Wolf Pack was losing the battle with Aaron's group, and he's been trying to make peace ever since, even summoning Aaron for a private chat in the garden, after Aden was evicted.

I do think Jay is the most genuine of the remaining housemates, even though he knows the game for him is about how to get rid of Aaron. I learnt this week that Jay would have made the final of Katie Price's reality show, but for his Big Brother involvement. There's something engaging about him, and he'll be more and more active, as time goes on. Will gain three nominations today; from Aaron, Harry and Faye.

Aaron is one of the biggest gameplayers in Big Brother history, but is deep and fascinating, in a way Nasty Nick and Marcus Akin were. His plan was always to use his group to get Aaron and Aden out, before targeting isolated Jay. The way people react to that final, inevitable battle will determine the outcome of the series. Aaron or Jay could still win, but it's just as likely that a neutral will take advantage, emerging as winner. I'm sure Aaron was surprised that Anton stayed over Aden, but he should succeed in his aim of getting them both out, before this week is through.

The house is getting to Aaron, though, sometimes compromising his gameplay. He did himself no favours with his long strop over the frosted flakes fight, and will pick up one extra nomination today because of that. Don't be surprised if he tries to sabotage the shopping task again this week. It's a weapon again Jay, who needs food more than Aaron and Harry do. The producers have recognised this tactic, I think, and Big Brother has begun to introduce easy-to-win tasks to gain late night suppers.

Aaron will stick with Faye, now that false Louise has gone back to Jay. The relationship with Faye will get Aaron to the final, but I think he'll have to use his son as his reason for wanting to win, to have a chance of finishing first. He'll probably work that one out in the last couple of weeks. Will pick up four nominations today; from Anton, Jay, Tom and Louise. So will be put up for eviction against Anton. Yesterday's strop saved Jay from being put up as well, I think.

Harry's continued to grow on me. Will vote with Aaron, regardless of his personal opinions. He could make the final, but I don't think a fox hunter can win. Will receive one nomination today from Jay.

Faye's come out of her shell this week a bit, and for me, has demonstrated more substance than Louise. Aaron will carry her to the final, but I think she has worked out that if she backs off a bit from him, closer to the end, she could win on individual personality. She's beginning to remind me of Kate Lawler, when she spats with Aaron, and especially when she puts her hair up. Needs to stop arguing with her sister, though, or she could be nominated heavily next week. And in the near future, at least, she might not survive an eviction battle with Aaron or Jay, or both. Will pick up two nominations today; from Anton and Tom.

That's Alex, on the left, there. Up to now, I've dismissed her as a potential winner, because she's such an airhead. But for the first time, I now believe that she could win. Like Sophie Reade and Rachel Rice, it would be for all the wrong reasons, she has up to now contributed even less than they did. But she's determined to stay positive and carefree, even when chaos is going on all around her, and that's why she could emerge as the winner, from between whatever is left of the two warring factions.

Nice touch by the housemates, getting the expensive hair extensions she wanted from last week's shopping budget. She needed the extensions to help disgiuise her plain looks and personality. Will gain no nominations today.

Tom's lightened up a bit, this week. Forming the new fun pair with Alex is a good move for him. But he's a naive backstabber, and will eventually be caught out. Will gain no nominations today.

Jemma's a bit detached on occasion, like most latecomers. Her submissiveness to Faye doesn't mirror her bravado to others, and to the outside world. Will probably be the next out, after Anton. Will pick up one nomination today, from Alex.

So who's going to win? This year, the dynamics are such that it's hard to pick a winner, but I've now got;

1. Faye (up 4 from last week).
2. Jay (up 1).
3. Aaron (down 1).
4. Harry (same as last week).
5. Louise (down 4).

For my previous posts on house dynamics, please visit http://stevestonechat.blogspot.com/2011/10/british-big-brother-anton-is-he-going.html, http://stevestonechat.blogspot.com/2011/10/british-big-brother-nominations-update.html, http://stevestonechat.blogspot.com/2011/10/whos-going-to-win-british-big-brother.html and http://stevestonechat.blogspot.com/2011/09/who-is-going-to-win-british-big-brother.html

British Big Brother - Anton - Is He Going To Kick Off Tonight?

You've got to give the kid some credit. Even though, during the 'Stranded' task, he chose to save Faye just to wind Aaron up, you have to admit that it was a Herculean effort to ascend enough stairs on a climbing machine to top Ben Nevis.

I don't think it's enough to save him from eviction tonight, but there is a just a small chance that Aden might beat him to the door. Anton's later sexist rant to Louise didn't do him any favours, either.

What I'm wondering about tonight is Anton's reaction to the near certainty of eviction. The pot has been simmering between him and Aaron for a while now, and is close to boiling over. Anton has a real nasty streak in him, which he's struggling to keep bottled up, and he's done well so far to restrict his feelings towards Aaron to a few very choice comments.

Aaron's planned it this way all along, of course. He quite bravely decided to take the Wolf Pack (Jay, Aden and Anton) on, after they were partly responsible for driving Mark out. That's what the deliberate sabotage of the last two shopping tasks were all about, and he's been pushing their buttons more and more lately, trying to prise a reaction out of them that will put them in a bad light.

The question is, will hearing news of his eviction push Anton over the edge? I think he might just conclude that it's over for him, so why not give Aaron a mouthful, shove or worse on the way out?

I hope BB security are primed up, just in case......

For my previous posts on house dynamics, please visit http://stevestonechat.blogspot.com/2011/10/british-big-brother-nominations-update.html, http://stevestonechat.blogspot.com/2011/10/whos-going-to-win-british-big-brother.html and http://stevestonechat.blogspot.com/2011/09/who-is-going-to-win-british-big-brother.html

And for an update on who I think might win the series, watch this space over the weekend, after tonight's eviction....

British Big Brother - Nominations Update, Jay v Aaron - What Does It All Mean?

I was mildly surprised to learn that no fewer than five housemates have been put up to face eviction this week - Jay, Aaron, Faye, Aden and Anton.

There's obviously been some subtle nomination collusion going on within Jay's group (Jay, Anton and Aden), and Aaron's group (Aaron, Harry and Faye). I think Harry's escaped the public vote because Jay's group, in the true spirit of divide and conquer, all nominated Faye and Aaron. We'll find out for sure tonight, I guess.

There's little doubt that Anton will be evicted this coming Friday. For weeks, many have been saying that if he's put up for eviction, he's gone, because of his arrogant streak. And that's going to leave Jay outnumbered and exposed. Next week, there can be little doubt that Jay and Aden will be the only two housemates put up for eviction. Aaron, Faye and Harry will all nominate them, and I think Aden and Jay will also get votes from Alex and Jemma, who's going to work out pretty quickly why her sister has been put up for eviction this week. Aden made a big mistake, when he told Faye he hadn't nominated her, when in fact he had.

With Anton and Aden both gone, this Friday and the next, Jay will be left alone and isolated against Aaron's group. But he will be much more difficult to shift from the house than his two cohorts. He put a brave face on Louise's decision to cool off with him, but make no mistake, he was absolutely gutted, and it can only make him more isolated in the weeks to come. There's going to be a lot more pillow punching going on.

A canny one, that Louise. On Sunday night, she was rolling around with Jay in bed, in the private room, and the very next day, she tells him that she wants to back off. She had this week's nominations worked out in her head, of course, and decided that Aaron's group would be a better bet, long term. Did you notice that during Aaron's cleverly engineered chat with Louise about Jay, she told Aaron that she could have a meaningful conversation with him, in a way she couldn't with Jay? But I didn't see her having any difficulty chatting with Jay in the private room....

Now Aaron's a real gameplayer, very similar to Nasty Nick. I wonder if, over the next couple of weeks or so, he'll let Jemma prise him away from Faye, and take up instead with Louise. Louise has been staying out of trouble until now, and is planning to emerge from her shell once the field has narrowed a bit, just like Kate Lawler did. If she took up with Aaron, I think it would guarantee them both a place in the final. And I think they both know it....

For my previous posts on house dynamics, please visit http://stevestonechat.blogspot.com/2011/10/whos-going-to-win-british-big-brother.html and http://stevestonechat.blogspot.com/2011/09/who-is-going-to-win-british-big-brother.html

And be sure to watch this space, as the series develops....

Who's Going To Win British Big Brother? An Update

Here's an update to my first blog on this subject at http://stevestonechat.blogspot.com/2011/09/who-is-going-to-win-british-big-brother.html

I had Jay tagged as an unlikely winner, a couple of weeks ago. But in the last week or so he's become more miserable, and has started to swear a lot more - too much to give him a chance of winning, I think. It's all about the situation with Aaron, of course - more on that below. The main feature of the show is now Jay's group (Jay, Aden and Anton) versus Aaron's group (Aaron, Harry and Faye). Animosity is there, and it's all going to come to a head, sooner rather than later. The winner of that conflict could well win the show, but it's also possible that the two camps could end up destroying each other's chances, letting a neutral through to win.

Jay is still the biggest character in the house, but is guaranteed at least three nominations today, possibly more. And a key development today is that he's fallen out with Louise, his squeeze up to now - more on that below, too.

Aaron's been a real game player from the start, and is for me very reminiscent of scheming Nasty Nick. Aaron's trying to win the money for his son, and there's nothing wrong with that. It's the depth of his personality that makes him so interesting, and make no mistake, almost everything he does is calculated. When he's not sure about how to adapt his game to the latest situation, he withdraws somewhere quiet for a while, taking time to figure things out, before coming up with a measured response for people.

I don't think he liked brash Jay from the beginning, but decided to tolerate him, in the interests of staying out of trouble. What pushed him over the edge with Jay was when Mark left - they were close, and Mark made it pretty clear that Jay was a big factor in him going home. Since that happened, the battle lines have been drawn, and Jay is now Aaron's target.

Just like Nasty Nick would have done, Aaron's been involved in some pretty serious gameplaying this week, regarding the situation. After a frosty spell, he's beginning to win Tom over to his side. And he seems to have gained Alex's sympathy a little as well. He's already tried once to turn Aden against Jay, and today, he cleverly engineered a private conversation with Louise, just after she and Jay agreed to cool it a bit.

I think Aaron's guaranteed at least four nominations today. It could be him against Jay for eviction this week. I certainly hope not - that battle should wait until much later, even until the final.

Jemma, new housemate and Faye's older sister. For me, she's a bit too upfront and manipulative to win. The producers put her in to mess up Aaron's little game with Faye. Jemma had seen it all on TV of course, before she went in, and has got Aaron worked out a bit. Aligning herself with Jay is a mistake, I think. Will get into arguments with Faye, Aaron and probably Jay before too long, and won't last too long in the house.

I've seen a bit of a different side to Aden this week. Behind the rap bravado, he's quite a sensitive and thoughtful guy, and seems to have recovered from losing nasty Rebeckah. Becoming Jay's henchman is a mistake, though, it'll bring out his aggressive streak, and he'll eventually be swamped out of the house.

Harry had already started to grow on me, and he's developed more as a character this week. He's interesting, and I couldn't believe it when he took Anton on in a big argument over being deceitful, and shouted him down. Could do well long-term, but his support of fox hunting rules him out as a winner, I think.

Alex, on the left, has been touted as a favourite to win. She's a nice enough girl, and keeps herself out of trouble, that's for sure. But she's no game player, and is too much of an airhead to win. She was actually serious when she said that visiting Willy Wonka's Chocolate Factory in America was a big ambition, and didn't believe Harry, when he told her that it didn't exist. She's also outgunned by the other girls, on both looks and personality.

There's a real nasty streak in ex-gang member Anton. He's done quite well to bottle it up a bit until now, but it will come out more and more over time, and is the reason he can't win. I couldn't believe it when he backed down to Harry.

Faye's going to stick with Aaron, I think, in spite of her sister's obvious caution about him. Aaron does like her, I'm sure, but he's letting her believe there's more to it than there actually is, as exploiting her affection is part of his game. Aaron might carry her to the final, her relationship with him was what kept her in over Maisy. But Faye's a bit too quiet to win, I think.

That's Louise, in the middle. There's a shrewd gameplayer behind the innocent facade. I think there has been definite evidence this week that she's sitting back and staying out of trouble, with the intention of emerging later, when the field has narrowed a bit. She latched on to Jay when he was the kingpin of fun, and I wonder if it's any coincidence that she has today backed off of him, now he's become duller, and more antagonistic. I wonder if she thinks Aaron will win the central battle of the series, and has opened her options up, in terms of switching sides for a while.

I think she'll come out of her shell towards the end, like Kate Lawler did. And she might just have the looks and personality to become the winning neutral, between the two warring groups.

After falling out with Aaron, I think Tom's come to realise that Aaron's group is probably the right side of the fence to be on. But underneath the geekiness, there's a spiteful, backstabbing streak, which will be his undoing before the final.

So who's going to win? I've changed my opinion since my last entry - that's what so engaging about Big Brother;

1. Louise (up 1).
2. Aaron (up 1).
3. Jay (down 2).
4. Harry (new entry).
5. Faye (new entry).

Of course, if Aaron and Jay are put up for eviction against one another this week, the whole dynamics of the house will change.

And for a surprising update on this developing story, please visit http://stevestonechat.blogspot.com/2011/10/british-big-brother-nominations-update.html

Who Is Going To Win British Big Brother?

After 11 series on Channel 4, I must admit I was worried that this series on Channel 5 might disappoint. But I'm absolutely loving it, from the great tasks to the interesting mix of housemates.

So who's going to win? Well, let's take a look at the candidates;

When I saw and heard Aaron on the opening night, I thought 'Oh my God, what an absolute tool'. But he's really grown on me, as time has gone on. He's the most interesting of all the housemates, because he's a real thinker - and game-player. He's almost as deep as Marcus Akin, who for me was the most interesting housemate of all time. Make no mistake, Aaron's in it to win the money for his son, and there's nothing wrong with that.

Who does he remind you of, from Big Brother's past? That's right, Nasty Nick. He looks a bit like him, and they've got a lot in common. Aaron has a streak of emotion in him, but almost everything he does is calculated. He learns as events unfold, and changes his act accordingly. You didn't really believe he was ever going home after the thing with Maisy, did you? Like Nasty Nick would have done, he went away and thought about it for a while, and then came back with measured responses for Tom, Faye and others, saying just the right thing to get them onside, and minimise damage. And he made himself the centre of attention for a while, didn't he? He knows that he isn't going anywhere tomorrow night, but the excellent Brian Dowling might make him sweat a bit, before revealing he's safe.

Aaron's clever, and will adapt his game as time goes on. Like Nasty Nick, he's got a subtle mean streak, and is capable of a bit of trickery, later on. But is he entertaining enough to win?

Aden - baseball-capped rap child. He's got an aggressive streak, but behind the bravado is an insecure young kid. Has moped about, since nasty, false Rebeckah left. He couldn't see that she was using him to try and stay in, and she'll use him on the outside too for magazine deals, if he isn't careful. The aggressive streak means he can't win.

Alex, that's her on the left. Quite a nice soul, but a bit shallow, a bit of an airhead. Can't win - is outgunned by the other girls on both looks and personality.

Anton - reformed gang member dude. You have to admire anyone who's chosen a better path in life, but make no mistake, there's a real nasty piece of work in there. As time goes on, he's going to struggle more and more to keep his true confrontational nature in check. I wonder how long he can keep the tape across his mouth? Can't win - too in-your-face.

Faye -  a quiet one, rather insecure too. What on Earth was it all about with Aaron? She was a bit withdrawn to begin with, so he felt a bit sorry for her, and told her that he liked her. She misinterpreted that, as an insecure young girl might, and it was the crime of the century when he kissed Maisy. He eventually said exactly the right things to get Faye back onside, and will use her affection for him to his advantage later on. She can't win - not engaging enough, doesn't do enough, too naive and shallow.

Harry - I disliked him on opening night, but I must admit, he's quite grown on me. He's interesting, and isn't afraid to speak his mind in a non-offensive way. A bit of a dark horse, might up his game a bit, but I don't think that a quiet-ish bisexual fox hunter can win.

Heaven, on the left, there. Will probably be evicted tomorrow. Her spiritualist approach to life does hold some interest, but too much of anything isn't a good thing. Won't last long, even if by some slim chance, she stays in tomorrow night.

Jay - a Newcastle man's man. When I first saw and heard him on opening night, I thought he was going to be trouble. But he's really grown on me. He genuinely cares about people, and has become a leader of sorts. He's a game-player too, and I think he's already cleverly using his Wolf Pack group to pick the outsiders off, by very subtlely encouraging others to nominate a target. I thought Tashie was his first target, because he thought she might be a candidate to win.

Who does he remind you of, from Big Brother's past? That's right, Johnny from Big Brother 3. There's a bit of Jason in him, as well. Make no mistake, Jay's got a real nasty streak in him, but he's shrewd, and will keep it in check to the end.

He swears a bit too much for me, but could win, if he ups his game a bit. Trouble is, Johnny and Jason both finished second....
 

Louise, in the middle, there. A bit quiet, but will come out of her shell more and more, as time goes on. I wonder if she's planning it that way, playing it non-controversial until the field narrows a bit. She's much cleverer than she comes across, and there's something engaging about her. I think she'll emerge as the top girl as time goes on, much in the same way that Kate Lawler did. And if she ups her game, like I think she will, maybe she has the looks and personality to pip the leading boys, like Kate did.

Maisy. Comes across as a tiny bit of a dumb blonde at times, but she's much sharper than she looks. I think her look is self-designed to win the big young vote, including her bottled blonde hair. She's a bit of a game-player too, and will try to use situations to her advantage. I think she did that with the Aaron situation. But she's a bit too quiet, doesn't do enough, and will have to really up her game to make the final.

Mark - clever dude. He's in it to win, he's trying to win. Tries hard to entertain, but a bit too hard at times, makes it too obvious. Thinks his mad inner world will get him to the final. Secretly fancies Aaron, I think, which might eventually be his undoing. Could well make the final, but he lacks a bit of substance, so will have to come up with, or be involved in, something a bit special to have a chance.

Tom - bisexual geek. I quite liked him on opening night, but now, I can't stand to watch him. He thinks far too much of himself, in reality he's immature and naive. What was all that aggression about Aaron leading him on? That's not what I saw.

Tom's a cross between Marco and Sam Pepper, and that's dangerous. He's capable of being spiteful, and will spread lies and malicious gossip to turn people against each other. Eventually, he'll be caught out, once too often. Can't make the final.


So who's going to win?

Aden, Alex, Anton, Faye, Heaven, Harry and Tom can't win. So that leaves Aaron, Jay, Louise, Maisy and Mark. Jay's the biggest personality, and will entertain. Aaron's the clever one. Louise is going to emerge from the pack. Quiet, non-controversial girls who make a bit of an effort at the end can win, look at Rachel Rice and Sophie Reade. I'm not sure that Jay could have won on Channel 4, but he might on Channel 5, especially in the year Paddy Docherty won Celebrity Big Brother. So at the moment, I've got;

1. Jay.
2. Louise.
3. Aaron.
4. Mark.
5. Maisy.

For updates on this story, please visit http://stevestonechat.blogspot.com/2011/10/whos-going-to-win-british-big-brother.html and http://stevestonechat.blogspot.com/2011/10/british-big-brother-nominations-update.html