British Big Brother - Nominations Update, Jay v Aaron - What Does It All Mean?

I was mildly surprised to learn that no fewer than five housemates have been put up to face eviction this week - Jay, Aaron, Faye, Aden and Anton.

There's obviously been some subtle nomination collusion going on within Jay's group (Jay, Anton and Aden), and Aaron's group (Aaron, Harry and Faye). I think Harry's escaped the public vote because Jay's group, in the true spirit of divide and conquer, all nominated Faye and Aaron. We'll find out for sure tonight, I guess.

There's little doubt that Anton will be evicted this coming Friday. For weeks, many have been saying that if he's put up for eviction, he's gone, because of his arrogant streak. And that's going to leave Jay outnumbered and exposed. Next week, there can be little doubt that Jay and Aden will be the only two housemates put up for eviction. Aaron, Faye and Harry will all nominate them, and I think Aden and Jay will also get votes from Alex and Jemma, who's going to work out pretty quickly why her sister has been put up for eviction this week. Aden made a big mistake, when he told Faye he hadn't nominated her, when in fact he had.

With Anton and Aden both gone, this Friday and the next, Jay will be left alone and isolated against Aaron's group. But he will be much more difficult to shift from the house than his two cohorts. He put a brave face on Louise's decision to cool off with him, but make no mistake, he was absolutely gutted, and it can only make him more isolated in the weeks to come. There's going to be a lot more pillow punching going on.

A canny one, that Louise. On Sunday night, she was rolling around with Jay in bed, in the private room, and the very next day, she tells him that she wants to back off. She had this week's nominations worked out in her head, of course, and decided that Aaron's group would be a better bet, long term. Did you notice that during Aaron's cleverly engineered chat with Louise about Jay, she told Aaron that she could have a meaningful conversation with him, in a way she couldn't with Jay? But I didn't see her having any difficulty chatting with Jay in the private room....

Now Aaron's a real gameplayer, very similar to Nasty Nick. I wonder if, over the next couple of weeks or so, he'll let Jemma prise him away from Faye, and take up instead with Louise. Louise has been staying out of trouble until now, and is planning to emerge from her shell once the field has narrowed a bit, just like Kate Lawler did. If she took up with Aaron, I think it would guarantee them both a place in the final. And I think they both know it....

For my previous posts on house dynamics, please visit http://stevestonechat.blogspot.com/2011/10/whos-going-to-win-british-big-brother.html and http://stevestonechat.blogspot.com/2011/09/who-is-going-to-win-british-big-brother.html

And be sure to watch this space, as the series develops....

Who's Going To Win British Big Brother? An Update

Here's an update to my first blog on this subject at http://stevestonechat.blogspot.com/2011/09/who-is-going-to-win-british-big-brother.html

I had Jay tagged as an unlikely winner, a couple of weeks ago. But in the last week or so he's become more miserable, and has started to swear a lot more - too much to give him a chance of winning, I think. It's all about the situation with Aaron, of course - more on that below. The main feature of the show is now Jay's group (Jay, Aden and Anton) versus Aaron's group (Aaron, Harry and Faye). Animosity is there, and it's all going to come to a head, sooner rather than later. The winner of that conflict could well win the show, but it's also possible that the two camps could end up destroying each other's chances, letting a neutral through to win.

Jay is still the biggest character in the house, but is guaranteed at least three nominations today, possibly more. And a key development today is that he's fallen out with Louise, his squeeze up to now - more on that below, too.

Aaron's been a real game player from the start, and is for me very reminiscent of scheming Nasty Nick. Aaron's trying to win the money for his son, and there's nothing wrong with that. It's the depth of his personality that makes him so interesting, and make no mistake, almost everything he does is calculated. When he's not sure about how to adapt his game to the latest situation, he withdraws somewhere quiet for a while, taking time to figure things out, before coming up with a measured response for people.

I don't think he liked brash Jay from the beginning, but decided to tolerate him, in the interests of staying out of trouble. What pushed him over the edge with Jay was when Mark left - they were close, and Mark made it pretty clear that Jay was a big factor in him going home. Since that happened, the battle lines have been drawn, and Jay is now Aaron's target.

Just like Nasty Nick would have done, Aaron's been involved in some pretty serious gameplaying this week, regarding the situation. After a frosty spell, he's beginning to win Tom over to his side. And he seems to have gained Alex's sympathy a little as well. He's already tried once to turn Aden against Jay, and today, he cleverly engineered a private conversation with Louise, just after she and Jay agreed to cool it a bit.

I think Aaron's guaranteed at least four nominations today. It could be him against Jay for eviction this week. I certainly hope not - that battle should wait until much later, even until the final.

Jemma, new housemate and Faye's older sister. For me, she's a bit too upfront and manipulative to win. The producers put her in to mess up Aaron's little game with Faye. Jemma had seen it all on TV of course, before she went in, and has got Aaron worked out a bit. Aligning herself with Jay is a mistake, I think. Will get into arguments with Faye, Aaron and probably Jay before too long, and won't last too long in the house.

I've seen a bit of a different side to Aden this week. Behind the rap bravado, he's quite a sensitive and thoughtful guy, and seems to have recovered from losing nasty Rebeckah. Becoming Jay's henchman is a mistake, though, it'll bring out his aggressive streak, and he'll eventually be swamped out of the house.

Harry had already started to grow on me, and he's developed more as a character this week. He's interesting, and I couldn't believe it when he took Anton on in a big argument over being deceitful, and shouted him down. Could do well long-term, but his support of fox hunting rules him out as a winner, I think.

Alex, on the left, has been touted as a favourite to win. She's a nice enough girl, and keeps herself out of trouble, that's for sure. But she's no game player, and is too much of an airhead to win. She was actually serious when she said that visiting Willy Wonka's Chocolate Factory in America was a big ambition, and didn't believe Harry, when he told her that it didn't exist. She's also outgunned by the other girls, on both looks and personality.

There's a real nasty streak in ex-gang member Anton. He's done quite well to bottle it up a bit until now, but it will come out more and more over time, and is the reason he can't win. I couldn't believe it when he backed down to Harry.

Faye's going to stick with Aaron, I think, in spite of her sister's obvious caution about him. Aaron does like her, I'm sure, but he's letting her believe there's more to it than there actually is, as exploiting her affection is part of his game. Aaron might carry her to the final, her relationship with him was what kept her in over Maisy. But Faye's a bit too quiet to win, I think.

That's Louise, in the middle. There's a shrewd gameplayer behind the innocent facade. I think there has been definite evidence this week that she's sitting back and staying out of trouble, with the intention of emerging later, when the field has narrowed a bit. She latched on to Jay when he was the kingpin of fun, and I wonder if it's any coincidence that she has today backed off of him, now he's become duller, and more antagonistic. I wonder if she thinks Aaron will win the central battle of the series, and has opened her options up, in terms of switching sides for a while.

I think she'll come out of her shell towards the end, like Kate Lawler did. And she might just have the looks and personality to become the winning neutral, between the two warring groups.

After falling out with Aaron, I think Tom's come to realise that Aaron's group is probably the right side of the fence to be on. But underneath the geekiness, there's a spiteful, backstabbing streak, which will be his undoing before the final.

So who's going to win? I've changed my opinion since my last entry - that's what so engaging about Big Brother;

1. Louise (up 1).
2. Aaron (up 1).
3. Jay (down 2).
4. Harry (new entry).
5. Faye (new entry).

Of course, if Aaron and Jay are put up for eviction against one another this week, the whole dynamics of the house will change.

And for a surprising update on this developing story, please visit http://stevestonechat.blogspot.com/2011/10/british-big-brother-nominations-update.html

Who Is Going To Win British Big Brother?

After 11 series on Channel 4, I must admit I was worried that this series on Channel 5 might disappoint. But I'm absolutely loving it, from the great tasks to the interesting mix of housemates.

So who's going to win? Well, let's take a look at the candidates;

When I saw and heard Aaron on the opening night, I thought 'Oh my God, what an absolute tool'. But he's really grown on me, as time has gone on. He's the most interesting of all the housemates, because he's a real thinker - and game-player. He's almost as deep as Marcus Akin, who for me was the most interesting housemate of all time. Make no mistake, Aaron's in it to win the money for his son, and there's nothing wrong with that.

Who does he remind you of, from Big Brother's past? That's right, Nasty Nick. He looks a bit like him, and they've got a lot in common. Aaron has a streak of emotion in him, but almost everything he does is calculated. He learns as events unfold, and changes his act accordingly. You didn't really believe he was ever going home after the thing with Maisy, did you? Like Nasty Nick would have done, he went away and thought about it for a while, and then came back with measured responses for Tom, Faye and others, saying just the right thing to get them onside, and minimise damage. And he made himself the centre of attention for a while, didn't he? He knows that he isn't going anywhere tomorrow night, but the excellent Brian Dowling might make him sweat a bit, before revealing he's safe.

Aaron's clever, and will adapt his game as time goes on. Like Nasty Nick, he's got a subtle mean streak, and is capable of a bit of trickery, later on. But is he entertaining enough to win?

Aden - baseball-capped rap child. He's got an aggressive streak, but behind the bravado is an insecure young kid. Has moped about, since nasty, false Rebeckah left. He couldn't see that she was using him to try and stay in, and she'll use him on the outside too for magazine deals, if he isn't careful. The aggressive streak means he can't win.

Alex, that's her on the left. Quite a nice soul, but a bit shallow, a bit of an airhead. Can't win - is outgunned by the other girls on both looks and personality.

Anton - reformed gang member dude. You have to admire anyone who's chosen a better path in life, but make no mistake, there's a real nasty piece of work in there. As time goes on, he's going to struggle more and more to keep his true confrontational nature in check. I wonder how long he can keep the tape across his mouth? Can't win - too in-your-face.

Faye -  a quiet one, rather insecure too. What on Earth was it all about with Aaron? She was a bit withdrawn to begin with, so he felt a bit sorry for her, and told her that he liked her. She misinterpreted that, as an insecure young girl might, and it was the crime of the century when he kissed Maisy. He eventually said exactly the right things to get Faye back onside, and will use her affection for him to his advantage later on. She can't win - not engaging enough, doesn't do enough, too naive and shallow.

Harry - I disliked him on opening night, but I must admit, he's quite grown on me. He's interesting, and isn't afraid to speak his mind in a non-offensive way. A bit of a dark horse, might up his game a bit, but I don't think that a quiet-ish bisexual fox hunter can win.

Heaven, on the left, there. Will probably be evicted tomorrow. Her spiritualist approach to life does hold some interest, but too much of anything isn't a good thing. Won't last long, even if by some slim chance, she stays in tomorrow night.

Jay - a Newcastle man's man. When I first saw and heard him on opening night, I thought he was going to be trouble. But he's really grown on me. He genuinely cares about people, and has become a leader of sorts. He's a game-player too, and I think he's already cleverly using his Wolf Pack group to pick the outsiders off, by very subtlely encouraging others to nominate a target. I thought Tashie was his first target, because he thought she might be a candidate to win.

Who does he remind you of, from Big Brother's past? That's right, Johnny from Big Brother 3. There's a bit of Jason in him, as well. Make no mistake, Jay's got a real nasty streak in him, but he's shrewd, and will keep it in check to the end.

He swears a bit too much for me, but could win, if he ups his game a bit. Trouble is, Johnny and Jason both finished second....
 

Louise, in the middle, there. A bit quiet, but will come out of her shell more and more, as time goes on. I wonder if she's planning it that way, playing it non-controversial until the field narrows a bit. She's much cleverer than she comes across, and there's something engaging about her. I think she'll emerge as the top girl as time goes on, much in the same way that Kate Lawler did. And if she ups her game, like I think she will, maybe she has the looks and personality to pip the leading boys, like Kate did.

Maisy. Comes across as a tiny bit of a dumb blonde at times, but she's much sharper than she looks. I think her look is self-designed to win the big young vote, including her bottled blonde hair. She's a bit of a game-player too, and will try to use situations to her advantage. I think she did that with the Aaron situation. But she's a bit too quiet, doesn't do enough, and will have to really up her game to make the final.

Mark - clever dude. He's in it to win, he's trying to win. Tries hard to entertain, but a bit too hard at times, makes it too obvious. Thinks his mad inner world will get him to the final. Secretly fancies Aaron, I think, which might eventually be his undoing. Could well make the final, but he lacks a bit of substance, so will have to come up with, or be involved in, something a bit special to have a chance.

Tom - bisexual geek. I quite liked him on opening night, but now, I can't stand to watch him. He thinks far too much of himself, in reality he's immature and naive. What was all that aggression about Aaron leading him on? That's not what I saw.

Tom's a cross between Marco and Sam Pepper, and that's dangerous. He's capable of being spiteful, and will spread lies and malicious gossip to turn people against each other. Eventually, he'll be caught out, once too often. Can't make the final.


So who's going to win?

Aden, Alex, Anton, Faye, Heaven, Harry and Tom can't win. So that leaves Aaron, Jay, Louise, Maisy and Mark. Jay's the biggest personality, and will entertain. Aaron's the clever one. Louise is going to emerge from the pack. Quiet, non-controversial girls who make a bit of an effort at the end can win, look at Rachel Rice and Sophie Reade. I'm not sure that Jay could have won on Channel 4, but he might on Channel 5, especially in the year Paddy Docherty won Celebrity Big Brother. So at the moment, I've got;

1. Jay.
2. Louise.
3. Aaron.
4. Mark.
5. Maisy.

For updates on this story, please visit http://stevestonechat.blogspot.com/2011/10/whos-going-to-win-british-big-brother.html and http://stevestonechat.blogspot.com/2011/10/british-big-brother-nominations-update.html