Who's Going to Win the Big Brother Final?

I was worried, when I heard Channel 5 were going to have a crack at screening Big Brother, but I must say that the current series has been excellent, as has Brian Dowling. Of all the series to date, this topsy-turvy one is probably the most difficult to call, but here's my take on it;

Louise, at the centre, is more of a gameplayer than she lets on.  In the early weeks, she sat back, without doing or saying too much. She has looks and personality, and decided to stay out of trouble, hoping to emerge from the pack, when the field narrowed a bit.

She saw Jay as her golden opportunity to reach the final. He's besotted with her, but although she has developed some true feelings for him, she's not quite genuine. The biggest giveaway was when she dumped him one Sunday, because she thought he was going to be put up for eviction against Aaron, only to take Jay back the very next day, when she realised he wasn't going anywhere, because Anton and Aden were put up for eviction as well. I'm sure that outside the house, she'll keep it going with him for a while to get magazine deals, but she'll eventually discard him, and will end up a footballer's wife.

Louise is nevertheless a nice person, and since emerging from her shell, she has demonstrated top-girl personality and looks. But apart from her ongoing association with Jay, she hasn't really done or said much. The relationship with Jay has also revealed her to be a little shallow and vulgar, so I don't think she can win. May well be evicted, this coming Thursday night.

Tom was in terrible trouble in the early weeks, as all too often, he often couldn't hide his true bitchy, backstabbing nature. In the early running, he was fortunate not to be put up for eviction, which gave him just enough time to formulate his one and only attempt at true gameplay - his engineering of the 'fun' partnership with Alex. He would have been gone a long time ago, but for that, and he knows it.

To be fair, the pair's antics have often been good to watch. Tom's good fun, when the mood takes him, but still struggles on occasion to contain his spiteful streak. The nasty side of Tom means he can't win, but he might just make the final, surviving eviction over Louise on Thursday.

  
Alex, on the left, has in truth contributed little more than her smile. The long hair extensions were important to her, because they are the only thing that disguise her mediocre looks, which are as plain as her airhead personality, and often unintelligible speech.

But she may well win. She was quiet in the early weeks, but the 'fun' partnership with Tom gave her the change to emerge a little. She knew it as well, and once the partnership had started, she began to visit the Diary Room more often, to tell the public how she was doing. Like Mark, her efforts to entertain often feel a bit forced, but her happy-go-lucky nature could win the series, because consistently smiling through all the conflict has made her look good, against the other housemates.

People who sit on the fence, paint a smile, and don't do or say very much can win Big Brother, look at Rachel Rice and Sophie Reade. Alex has contributed even less than they did, but might win by default, as she's the only one who has steered clear of conflict, which has possibly generated enough reasons why the others can't win.

The producers are trying to bolster Alex's chances, by giving her more coverage this week. But the one thing that might hurt her chances was the revelation that she once short-changed a blind person to buy her own lunch, a tale that indicates she's not as squeaky-clean as she seems.

Jay, a brash, but likeable Northener. He's been playing a game, from the very start. He formed and led the 'Wolf Pack', in an attempt to dominate others and subtlely influence nomination voting, with the aim of eliminating housemates from the series, one by one.

Jay always perceived arch-enemy Aaron to be his greatest threat. He employed a strategy to eliminate those around Aaron first, before concentrating on the main target. But the plan didn't work out, so Jay cleverly struck up an awkward friendship with Aaron, after the last Wolf Pack member was evicted. As part of his gameplay, Jay also consciously cut back on swearing, from the point he was first put up for eviction.

He's the most genuine of all the housemates, and has often been entertaining to watch. He has a large female fan base, and a small chance to win. Last night, he finally resolved the latest conflict with Aaron, which erupted over the purchase of birthday presents for Tom and Alex. It was hard for Jay to swallow his pride, and discuss it again with Aaron, but I think he knew he had to do it, to keep any chance of winning alive.

Jay's vulgar side will probably prevent him from winning the series. In particular, wiping his bum on Louise's pillowcase didn't do him any favours.

Aaron is trying to win it for his son, and is the biggest gameplayer in Big Brother history. He's very cleverly put himself at the centre of most things, almost from the beginning. The flirting with Maisy, then Rebeckah. The conflict with Tom, who thought Aaron fancied him. Taking on Jay's Wolf Pack, when they forced his friend Mark out. Deliberately failing shopping tasks, to deny Jay and Anton food. The tumultuous relationship with Faye - I think he developed some genuine feelings for her, but she was also part of his game to reach the final. The conflict with Faye's sister, who arrived as a newcomer, to stir the relationship up. The character assassination of the friends' and families' nominations. The electric shock nominations, when he voted contrary to the other housemates' plan to stage a result. The conflict with Jay and Louise, over birthday presents for Alex and Tom.

Originally, I thought Aaron was making a big mistake, when he objected to Louise and Jay spending £1,000 of the prize money on Tom and Alex. Jay and Louise were trying to gain viewer votes by displaying generosity, but there was also a genuine warmth to their desire to purchase the presents. Ignoring them for a few days initially made Aaron look isolated and bad, but then he very cleverly turned the situation around. He began to regularly play Tom and Alex's silly games, which eventually made Louise and Jay look isolated instead, and perhaps a little guilty of trying to buy votes. Eventually, Aaron reduced muscleman Jay to tears, forcing him to make the first move to reconcile the situation, which in turn made Aaron look good, for agreeing to bury the hatchet. And the more I thought about it, the more I realised that Aaron had engineered the situation, to re-ignite the conflict with Jay, providing one last opportunity to push his buttons. And the fact that Jay eventually got warned by Big Brother for becoming too aggressive makes Aaron an even bigger schemer than 'Nasty Nick' Bateman. 

You see, sometimes it's been upfront, and sometimes it's been underlying, but the simmering battle between Aaron and Jay has been the defining feature of the series, and Aaron knows it. The winner of the battle is not quite yet decided, but Aaron's clearly had the upper hand to date.

If winning Big Brother was judged by the contribution of individual housemates, Aaron's got it won, hands-down. But gameplaying is unpopular in many circles, and Aaron's strops and sulkiness when things don't go his way might cost him. From an early stage, I thought the ongoing conflict between Aaron and Jay would ultimately determine the winner, but there's also the danger it might scupper them both, and let an agreeable neutral through to win.


So who is going to win the Big Brother Final? Although I want Aaron to win, my final prediction is;

1. Alex (up 2 from last week).
2. Aaron (down 1).
3. Jay (down 1).
4. Tom (up 1).

For all my previous November, October and September posts on house dynamics, please check out the right-hand sidebar, towards the top of this blog.

Conrad Murray - Guilty or Not Guilty?

The 'Michael Jackson' trial is finally over. I've followed the thrust of it throughout, watching the excellent live coverage from Sky News, here in the UK. So is Conrad Murray guilty of the involuntary manslaughter of Michael Jackson? Here's my take on it all.

1. Murray had been administering the surgical anasthetic propofol to Jackson for quite some time, in conjunction with other drugs. The desired effect was to help the singer sleep, so that he could fulfil his performing and business commitments. The time Jackson had been using propofol and other drugs preceded his involvement with Murray, and Murray unwisely chose to continue the treatment program for money. Murray fully realised the dangers involved with using propofol, but ordered very significant quantities of it, because Jackson had asked Murray to accompany him on a forthcoming 10-month tour. One evening, Jackson ultimately died from an overdose of propofol, administered in combination with other drugs.

Does Murray's agreement to use propofol constitute the single 'substantial factor' in Jackson's death that is necessary for criminal negligence, and thereby involuntary manslaughter to be proven? I think Murray's attitude to the use of propofol was extremely unwise, but for me, the answer is no. Better to administer the drug in some form of controlled manner, than to let Jackson give it to himself.

2. There's no doubt that Murray didn't have the ideal resources available to properly administer propofol, monitor its use on Jackson, or take necessary corrective action should an unexpected event happen. Does this constitute the single 'substantial factor' required for guilt? For me, the answer is again no. Other examples came up, where propofol has been used in a non-surgical environment, for example experimentally, or in a hospice. It was recognised that in reality, such uses might not have all of the ideal safeguards in place, and for me, it wasn't proven that Murray's efforts were unreasonable, including restricting Jackson personal access to the drug.

3. Did Murray negligently administer enough propofol to kill Jackson, in conjunction with the effect of other drugs, as a 'substantial factor' in his death? I believe that Murray used a drip-feed to administer propofol to Jackson, since one or even two 25ml shots would have probably not put Jackson to sleep for long. Murray admitted to police that drip-feeds had been added on many occasions previously for this purpose. I also believe that Murray must have smuggled the drip out of the room, since none of the equipment recovered by police showed much evidence of propofol being used.

But whilst I think Murray may well have messed up the propofol drip-feed, feeding Jackson too much of the drug, I don't think the prosecution proved it beyond a reasonable doubt. And for me, the broken syringe on the floor constitutes reasonable doubt that Jackson might have self-administered the drug - even in a state of panic, why would a trained physician throw a valuable asset on the floor?

Finally, given the unusual setting, I don't think it was unreasonable for Murray to step into the bathroom for two minutes, and for me, it wasn't proven beyond a reasonable doubt that he was out of the immediate area for any longer, thereby abandoning his duty of care.   

So for me, the required 'substantial factor' was not proven here.

4. Did Murray act negligently in his attempts to save Jackson, once discovering that he was no longer breathing, as a 'substantial factor' in his death? You can imagine Murray's state of mind, upon making the discovery. Jackson was one of the most famous men in the world, and Murray faced ruin, if he couldn't save him. I think that in his state of mind, Murray forgot his medical training, and made a hash of trying to resuscitate Jackson. But I don't think the prosecution proved beyond a reasonable doubt that Murray's actions contributed to his death.

It's what Murray didn't do that condemns him. He didn't call 911, or organise a call to 911, in a timeframe that was anywhere near reasonable. It was quite deliberate, in my view. He gambled that he could save Jackson alone, and the world would never need to know what happened. When his gamble didn't work out, he didn't offer full information to other medical personnel, hoping that everything might go away, or at least that an investigation might be delayed.

There was no excuse for not calling emergency services, pretty much straight away. It wouldn't have been unreasonable to conduct a short attempt at resuscitation first, but he had his phone on his person, and it had a speaker. How long would it have taken to dial 911, and activate the speaker, enabling him to alert emergency services whilst continuing his efforts to save Jackson?

It's this inaction alone that constitutes the single 'substantial factor' in Jackson's death, that Murray was responsible for. Murray's delay in calling 911 denied Jackson the opportunity for paramedics to save him.

So whilst Murray is guilty as charged, I do hope there will be a little leniency for him. He was clearly placed under enormous pressure to supply propofol to Jackson, and there was a lot of money and prestige attached to having the singer as a client.

Who's Going To Win Big Brother? After The Electric Shock Nominations....

Aaron's had a bit of a bad week, hasn't he? The electric shock nominations on Sunday night showed just what a gameplayer he is. The remaining six housemates came up with a plan to nominate each other in turn, so they would all face the final public eviction vote together. Aaron played along because he was first to nominate, but when Big Brother wouldn't accept an engineered result, the votes were scrapped, and the housemates had to start all over again.

In the revised voting, Aaron wasn't first to nominate two housemates to face eviction. Alex nominated before him, and from the look on her face, I believe her nominations were genuine. Recognising he had been given a chance to put Louise up for eviction, and guarantee his place in next week's final, Aaron played the game and nominated her, knowing that if she voted for Tom or Alex, Louise would face four opponents in the public vote - not a bad place to be.

What happened next was edited out of the main highlights show, but was shown on the fanzine 'Big Brother's Bit on the Side'. In the highlights show, Louise was shown nominating Faye, meaning that just the two of them now face eviction. But Louise actually nominated Tom first, before Big Brother forced her to change her engineered vote.

Aaron took all the blame for what happened. He could have nominated differently, meaning that the plan for all of the housemates to be put up for eviction together could have still been fulfilled, but he chose to play the game instead. And why not? It is a game, and he's trying to win it for his son. It's fair to say that he deliberately voted contradictory to the plan, and that Louise faces the public eviction vote because of it. But for housemates to blame him for Faye being included in the eviction vote was unfair, since Louise had the last nominations, and could have voted for Alex instead of Tom. And under that scenario, Faye would have faced the public vote anyway, albeit against four opponents, instead of just one.

Although blaming Aaron for the debacle was unfair, his stroppy, sulky reaction to Faye's venomous attitude didn't do him any favours, especially given that just the night before, he had withdrawn from the group because he didn't like the choice of music for a party. Tuesday night's pointless argument with Faye over her choice of clothes for another musical evening was also not good to watch.

Everything however has settled down, since then. Aaron has won back Faye's affections, and has even started to get on with Tom a bit. He's more full-on in his relationship with Faye now, in an effort to keep her in the house over Louise this Friday.

I still think Aaron can win. He's deep and engaging, and has been at the centre of everything, from the start. The flirting with Maisy and Rebeckah. Then Tom thought Aaron fancied him. Aaron took up with Faye, and then took on Jay's Wolf Pack, when they forced Mark out. Then Faye's sister arrived as a newcomer, to stir everything up. The friends' and families' nominations were a character assassination of Aaron, and the electric shock nominations were a disaster for him, albeit a little unfairly.

Throughout it all, the only thing Aaron has done 'wrong' is playing a game, a game which Big Brother has often made very difficult for him. Yes, he's the biggest gameplayer in the show's long history, and although he does have some genuine feelings for Faye, she has always been part of his game to reach the final. But he's contributed the most out of all the housemates, and I think the show would have been quite dull without him.

I do think that one more extended, sulky strop will destroy Aaron's chances, but if he ups his game in the final week, and stays out of trouble, he could win. He does have a big fan base, which appears to have stayed loyal.

Louise, in the middle, there. Big Brother did her a favour by only showing her electric shock nomination of Faye in the highlights show. It made it look as though she had sacrificed herself to keep Tom in the house for Alex's forthcoming birthday party, even though she had actually nominated Tom first.

Louise is a bit more of a gameplayer than you might think. She stayed quiet, keeping herself out of trouble in the early weeks, knowing her looks and personality could emerge from a narrower field. Then she took up with Jay, thinking he might carry her to the final. I do think she has developed some genuine feelings for him, but knows it can't work on the outside. Otherwise, why did she drop him like a stone, for the one day she thought he was going to be put up for eviction against Aaron?

She has the looks and personality to win, there's no doubt about that. But coming out of her shell has revealed her as a little shallow and vulgar, and that's why she can't win. She might well survive this Friday's eviction ahead of Faye, as a lot of people think she's 100% genuine with Jay. But whilst she'll keep the relationship with him going on the outside for magazine deals, she'll eventually drop him, and end up a footballer's wife.

Faye, a naive and paranoid 19-year-old. Although Aaron often doesn't say the right thing to her, she is inclined to start an argument over practically nothing. But she's a lovely person, and has substance. I think she's worked out that despite her feelings for Aaron, he isn't for her on the outside. But she's now gone full-on with him, thinking it will keep her in the house over Louise this Friday. I think that plan might backfire, since many people might be inclined to phone in and save Louise, just to see how Aaron will react to Faye's absence. Aaron fans might also want to save Louise, to give him a clean slate, and a chance to be himself in the final week.

Despite Louise being bookies' favourite to be evicted this week, I do think Faye will go. The reasons above are the wrong ones, since Faye has contributed much more than Louise. But that's the way it goes. It'll be a shame, since with a strong final week, I think Faye had a small chance of winning. But regardless, juicy magazine deals with Aaron await on the outside.

It's hard not to like Jay, a brash but very genuine northener. But his genuine feelings for Louise are not quite reciprocated, I fear. He's upped his game this week, and has been both entertaining and caring. His attempts to further his friendship with Aaron has done him some favours, particularly given that they were long time enemies. Jay's efforts to reconcile Faye and Aaron's relationship were also admirable.

Jay's got a growing fan base of girl voters, and could still win, with a big final week. But I don't think someone who thinks it's funny to wipe his bum on his girlfriend's pillowcase can quite do it.

Alex, on the left. Her fun, happy-go-lucky attitude may well win it for her, combined with the fact that she needs the money more than most - but the revelation that she once short-changed a blind person to get her own lunch did her no favours at all. She's made a big effort to be more entertaining this week. But she would be a default winner for me, in the sense that she might win because there are reasons the others can't. In truth, she has contributed little more than a smile. Even previous fence-sitters Sophie Reade and Rachel Rice did a little bit more than that.

Did you notice that Alex was preening her false hair extenstions in the mirror, even when trying to walk though a trap consisting of strings between two walls, whilst balancing glasses on a tray during the 'All-White' task? That's because she knows the mass of hair extensions are the only thing that disguise her mediocre looks, which are in reality as plain as her personality. She's a complete airhead to boot, and I can only understand about 50% of what little she says.

If her coming birthday bash is more sparkly than Anton's, you'll know Big Brother wants her to win. It would be her only big storyline to date.

You've got to hand it to him, he's been entertaining this week. But the fun partnership he engineered with Alex is the only thing that's kept him in so long. As well as making me laugh a few times, he's also annoyed me with his regular bitching and backstabbing against Aaron, including a couple of nasty insults during the 'Love Story' task.

Although Tom can be fun when the mood takes him, he can't help his bitchy, backstabbing nature, which he has failed to contain on a number of occasions throughout the series. My wife, Debi, says that it's the 'queen' in him. I think that's about right, and his nastiness is the reason he can't win.

So who is going to win? I'm going to stick to my guns, and not predict a 'default' winner;

1. Aaron (up 1 from last week).
2. Jay (down 1).
3. Alex (up 2).
4. Louise (same as last week).
5. Tom (new entry).

Watch this space next week, for my final Big Brother prediction. For my previous posts on house dynamics, check out the October and September posts on the right-hand sidebar.